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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics
2016-07-19 05:11:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2016 02:35:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Jul 2016 03:05:14 GMT
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-07-19 04:40:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190240 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 800 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 The satellite presentation of Estelle has degraded a bit in the past few hours with some warming cloud-top temperatures noted near the center. Convective towers have been seemingly just rotating around the center without any appreciable increase in inner-core structure. Satellite classifications have dropped a bit, so the initial wind speed will be lowered to 55 kt for this advisory. It is a little puzzling why Estelle has not intensified but it is likely related to the cyclone's large size and radius of maximum wind, along with any lingering dry mid-level air. With Estelle remaining over warm water and experiencing light shear for the next day or so, it makes sense to think the earlier negative conditions would eventually be overcome. There is a split tonight in the guidance, however, with the statistical-dynamical aids (SHIPS/LGEM) basically showing no intensification, while the regional dynamical models (HWRF/GFDL) are forecasting Estelle to become a hurricane. Given what has occurred so far, it is prudent to drop the intensity forecast from the previous one, but not yet give up on Estelle becoming a hurricane. A more consistent weakening should begin in a couple of days over cool waters, with remnant low status likely by day 4. Microwave and satellite data indicate that Estelle continues to move west-northwestward. A large ridge over the eastern Pacific has been providing a steady steering current for the cyclone. Estelle should continue moving westward to west-northwestward for the next several days, then turn northwestward late in the forecast period due to a weakness in the ridge. The track guidance continues to be tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast remains very close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 18.3N 116.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 18.7N 117.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 19.1N 120.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 19.4N 122.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 19.9N 124.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 21.6N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 24.0N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 24/0000Z 27.5N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm ESTELLE (EP1/EP062016)
2016-07-19 04:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ESTELLE A BIT WEAKER BUT STILL COULD INTENSIFY TOMORROW... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Jul 18 the center of ESTELLE was located near 18.3, -116.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm ESTELLE Graphics
2016-07-18 23:11:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Jul 2016 20:36:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Jul 2016 21:05:13 GMT
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estelle
Tropical Storm ESTELLE Forecast Discussion Number 14
2016-07-18 22:36:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 182036 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016 200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016 Banding features associated with Estelle have become a little better defined this afternoon, but the tropical storm still lacks an inner core. In fact, this afternoon's ASCAT data continues to show a large radius of maximum winds. Satellite classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMSS have not changed much during the past 24 hours, so the initial wind speed will remain 60 kt for this advisory. Estelle's refusal to intensify has likely been the result of shear and intrusions of dry mid-level air. Since the shear appears to have decreased and the tropical storm is predicted to remain over warm water for another 36-48 h, one would think that Estelle should be able to strengthen and finally attain hurricane status. However, this will likely be dependent on the cyclone consolidating inner-core convection, which is nearly impossible to forecast. It may sound like a broken record, but the NHC forecast once again calls for Estelle to become a hurricane during the next 12 to 24 hours. After 36 h, gradually decreasing SSTs and a less favorable thermodynamic environment should cause weakening. A faster rate of reduction in wind speed should occur later in the forecast period when the cyclone moves over SSTs below 24C, and Estelle is predicted to become post-tropical on day 4. Recent fixes indicate that Estelle continues to move west- northwestward. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous advisory. Estelle should continue west-northwestward for the next several days, then turn northwestward late in the forecast period, into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The track guidance continues to be tightly clustered and the NHC forecast lies between the typically better performing global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 17.8N 115.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 18.3N 117.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 18.8N 119.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 19.2N 121.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 19.7N 123.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 21.2N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 24.0N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1800Z 28.0N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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