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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Discussion Number 15
2014-11-02 21:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 022036 TCDEP1 HURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 Vance continues to gain strength. An eye has recently become apparent in visible satellite images and the fairly compact inner core of the hurricane is getting better organized. In addition, banding features are well established on the north and east sides of the circulation. The initial wind speed is raised to 75 kt, following the Dvorak intensity estimates of 4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB. Vance is currently in favorable environmental conditions with sea surface temperatures near 29 C, wind shear less than 10 kt, and high amounts of moisture. Since the hurricane is expected to remain in this environment for about another 12 to 24 hours, continued strengthening is predicted in the short term, and the NHC forecast lies at the high end of the guidance during that time. Beyond 24 hours, however, a substantial increase in southwesterly shear and a decrease in environmental moisture should cause a steady weakening trend, and Vance will likely degenerate to a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The hurricane is moving northwestward at about 14 kt steered by a mid-level ridge situated to its northeast over the Gulf of Mexico. A turn to the north with a reduction in forward speed is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, followed by a northeastward motion as a large trough moves eastward toward the cyclone. There has been an eastward shift in the guidance beyond 48 hours in this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction. The initial wind radii were modified based on a pair of ASCAT passes at around 1700 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 12.8N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 14.1N 109.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 17.7N 110.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 19.3N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 21.5N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 108.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane VANCE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2014-11-02 21:36:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 02 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 022035 PWSEP1 HURRICANE VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 2100 UTC SUN NOV 02 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 6( 7) 46(53) 16(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 1( 1) 12(13) 17(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) CLIPPERTON IS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane VANCE (EP1/EP212014)
2014-11-02 21:35:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VANCE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 1:00 PM PST Sun Nov 2 the center of VANCE was located near 12.8, -108.6 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane VANCE Public Advisory Number 15
2014-11-02 21:35:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 022035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN HURRICANE VANCE ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 100 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014 ...VANCE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 108.6W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. VANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H....AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT A WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN BY LATE MONDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY VANCE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN A DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 PM PST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane VANCE Forecast Advisory Number 15
2014-11-02 21:35:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN NOV 02 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 022034 TCMEP1 HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212014 2100 UTC SUN NOV 02 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 108.6W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 108.6W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 108.2W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.1N 109.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.7N 110.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.3N 109.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 108.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 108.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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