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Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2018-09-01 10:34:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 852 FOPZ11 KNHC 010834 PWSEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 0900 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 30 19(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 15N 125W 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 130W 34 X 4( 4) 14(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 11(13) 10(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 52(69) 1(70) X(70) 20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) X(33) X(33) 20N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 21(69) 2(71) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) X(32) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 14(37) 20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Summary for Hurricane Norman (EP1/EP162018)

2018-09-01 10:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NORMAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 1 the center of Norman was located near 16.3, -123.0 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.

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Hurricane Norman Public Advisory Number 17

2018-09-01 10:33:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 763 WTPZ31 KNHC 010833 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Norman Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 ...NORMAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 123.0W ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norman was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 123.0 West. Norman is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through early next week. On the forecast track, Norman will approach the central Pacific basin on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to continue today. Little change in intensity is expected beginning Sunday through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Norman Forecast Advisory Number 17

2018-09-01 10:33:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 603 WTPZ21 KNHC 010833 TCMEP1 HURRICANE NORMAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 0900 UTC SAT SEP 01 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 123.0W AT 01/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 123.0W AT 01/0900Z AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 122.5W FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.3N 124.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 16.6N 126.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.3N 129.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.2N 132.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.9N 139.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 21.0N 143.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.5N 147.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 123.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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