je.st

Home › simon

Tag: simon

Summary for Hurricane SIMON (EP4/EP192014)

2014-10-05 16:45:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SIMON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND SLOW DOWN SOON... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Oct 5 the center of SIMON was located near 22.9, -117.1 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Tags: summary simon hurricane ep4ep192014

Hurricane SIMON Public Advisory Number 16

2014-10-05 16:45:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 051445 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014 ...SIMON CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND SLOW DOWN SOON... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 117.1W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.1 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY... FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SIMON SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY MONDAY AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TUESDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB...28.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. STARTING ON TUESDAY...RAINFALL FROM SIMON IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Tags: number public simon advisory

Hurricane SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2014-10-05 16:45:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 05 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 051445 PWSEP4 HURRICANE SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 1500 UTC SUN OCT 05 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Tags: number speed wind simon

Hurricane SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 16

2014-10-05 16:45:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 05 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 051445 TCMEP4 HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 1500 UTC SUN OCT 05 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 117.1W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 117.1W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 116.9W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.6N 117.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 25.4N 117.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.2N 116.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 28.2N 115.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 29.7N 113.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 117.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

Tags: number simon advisory forecast