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Hurricane SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 15
2014-10-05 10:42:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050842 TCDEP4 HURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014 Simon peaked around 0000 UTC based on various satellite intensity estimates and microwave satellite imagery indicating that an eyewall replacement was well underway at that time. Since then, more recent conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicates that the inner-core convection has eroded significantly, especially in the southwestern semicircle, and that the eye is rapidly becoming less distinct. The initial intensity of 100 kt, which could be generous, is based on a blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS. The initial motion estimate is 320/09 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. A steadily weakening Simon is forecast to move around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge that extends from central Mexico westward to southern Baja California Sur for the next 48 hours, and then recurve to the northeast as the cyclone comes under the influence of mid-level southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching weak shortwave trough. As the cyclone weakens and becomes more vertically shallow, the system is expected to slow down until it reaches the latitude of recurvature along 24N-25N, after which a gradual increase in forward speed is expected. The official forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track and is close to the consensus model TVCN. Simon is now located over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures and is heading for cooler water. The cyclone is expected to remain in unfavorable oceanic and thermodynamic conditions for at least the next 72 hours, during which time southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase to more than 25 kt by 48 hours. These hostile conditions are expected to result in rapid weakening of Simon, with the cyclone becoming a remnant low pressure system by 96 hours, if not sooner. The new intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, and essentially follows the intensity consensus model IVCN. Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, deep moisture associated with the cyclone is expected to spread across northern Baja California, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger another heavy rain event in those regions in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 22.1N 116.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 23.0N 117.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 24.0N 117.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 24.9N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 25.6N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 27.6N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 28.9N 114.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/0600Z 30.6N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Hurricane SIMON (EP4/EP192014)
2014-10-05 10:42:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SIMON RAPIDLY WEAKENING BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Oct 5 the center of SIMON was located near 22.1, -116.7 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 953 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane SIMON Public Advisory Number 15
2014-10-05 10:42:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 050842 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE SIMON ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014 ...SIMON RAPIDLY WEAKENING BUT STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 116.7W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 435 MI...705 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST. SIMON IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SIMON IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE SIMON MOVES OVER COLDER WATER. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB...28.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...SIMON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE STATE OF SONORA IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. STARTING ON TUESDAY...RAINFALL FROM SIMON IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY SIMON ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane SIMON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2014-10-05 10:42:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 05 2014 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 050842 PWSEP4 HURRICANE SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0900 UTC SUN OCT 05 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Hurricane SIMON Forecast Advisory Number 15
2014-10-05 10:41:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 05 2014 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 050841 TCMEP4 HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 0900 UTC SUN OCT 05 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 116.7W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 116.7W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 116.4W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N 117.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.0N 117.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.9N 117.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.6N 117.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.6N 115.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 28.9N 114.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 30.6N 112.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 116.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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