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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Advisory Number 20
2016-09-19 10:38:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190837 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0900 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 47.7W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 47.7W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 47.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.6N 49.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.1N 52.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 50SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.9N 54.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.0N 57.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N 62.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 27.0N 65.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 29.5N 65.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 47.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm KARL Graphics
2016-09-19 04:39:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Sep 2016 02:39:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Sep 2016 02:38:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm KARL Forecast Discussion Number 19
2016-09-19 04:38:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 190238 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2016 Karl is a poorly organized tropical storm. Satellite data indicate that the low-level center is exposed to the southwest of a few patches of deep convection. The initial intensity is again held at 35 kt, in agreement with the earlier scatterometer data and a Dvorak classification from TAFB. The cyclone continues to struggle in an environment of southwesterly shear and dry air. In fact, total precipitable water imagery shows dry air wrapping around the west and south sides of the circulation. The models indicate that the shear should lower on Monday, and remain relatively light during the next several days. Since Karl is expected to track over progressively warmer waters, between 28-30 deg C, and move into a more conducive atmospheric environment, strengthening seems likely. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one, but it is a touch lower at the 12-h point given the current poor initial structure of Karl. This forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS model. The system is moving westward at 13 kt, and that general motion should continue for the next 12-24 hours as Karl remains on the south side of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. A west-northwestward motion is expected to begin by Monday night, followed by a turn to the northwest by mid-week when the cyclone moves toward a weakness in the ridge. Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there is a fair amount of spread by the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is slightly faster than the model consensus, giving a little more weight to the GFS and ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 18.3N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 18.5N 48.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 19.1N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 19.8N 53.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 20.7N 55.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 23.1N 60.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 26.5N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 28.8N 66.9W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm KARL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2016-09-19 04:38:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 190238 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0300 UTC MON SEP 19 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm KARL (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-19 04:37:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KARL NOT STRENGTHENING YET... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 18 the center of KARL was located near 18.3, -46.3 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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