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Hurricane Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2018-09-30 04:38:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 689 FOPZ15 KNHC 300238 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) IS GUADALUPE 34 X 6( 6) 5(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 7( 7) 21(28) 18(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUNTA EUGENIA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) P ABREOJOS 34 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) X(23) X(23) P PENASCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 115W 34 4 9(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 120W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 41 10(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 25N 120W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 30N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-09-30 04:38:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...FLOODING RAINS FROM ROSA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 the center of Rosa was located near 22.4, -118.9 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 969 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 20
2018-09-30 04:38:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 591 WTPZ35 KNHC 300238 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...FLOODING RAINS FROM ROSA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 118.9W ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin to a Tropical Storm Warning. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the east coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Rosa. Additional watches or warnings may be required on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 118.9 West. Rosa is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday morning. A north-northeastward motion is expected to begin on Sunday and continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday. Rosa's remnants will then move quickly across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Rosa is expected to become a tropical storm late Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California during this weekend and early next week. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 20
2018-09-30 04:37:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 574 WTPZ25 KNHC 300237 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA DE LOS ANGELES TO SAN FELIPE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 118.9W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 130SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 118.9W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 118.9W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.9N 118.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.7N 117.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 29.6N 115.3W...OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 35.7N 111.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 118.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-09-30 01:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...FLOODING RAINS FROM ROSA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 5:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 the center of Rosa was located near 21.9, -118.9 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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