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Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)

2018-09-29 22:41:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ROSA STILL MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 the center of Rosa was located near 21.4, -118.7 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 19

2018-09-29 22:41:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 182 WTPZ25 KNHC 292041 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO CABO SAN QUINTIN INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 118.7W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB EYE DIAMETER 35 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 118.7W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 118.7W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 22.9N 118.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.8N 118.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.7N 117.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 28.8N 116.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 34.5N 113.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 118.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 19

2018-09-29 22:41:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 184 WTPZ35 KNHC 292041 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 ...ROSA STILL MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 118.7W ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pacific Coast of the Baja California Peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Rosa. Additional watches and warnings may be required for this area later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 118.7 West. Rosa is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rosa is expected to start weakening tonight, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by late Sunday or Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the Baja California Peninsula, and southern California during this weekend and early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Rosa Graphics

2018-09-29 19:35:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 17:35:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 15:28:11 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)

2018-09-29 19:34:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ROSA CONTINUING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 the center of Rosa was located near 21.0, -118.5 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

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