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Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 18A
2018-09-29 19:34:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 599 WTPZ35 KNHC 291734 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 ...ROSA CONTINUING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.0N 118.5W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pacific Coast of the Baja California Peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Rosa. Additional watches and warnings may be required for this area later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM PDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 118.5 West. Rosa is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rosa is expected to start weakening tonight, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by late Sunday or Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the Baja California Peninsula, and southern California during this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Rosa Graphics
2018-09-29 16:58:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 14:58:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 14:58:30 GMT
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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-09-29 16:49:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 521 WTPZ45 KNHC 291449 TCDEP5 Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 Rosa has become significantly better organized during the last several hours, likely due to the completion of an eyewall replacement cycle before the center moved over cold water. The storm now has a 30-40 n mi wide eye, and the eyewall convective tops have become much colder and more symmetric. The initial intensity has been increased to 90 kt based on a blend of various satellite intensity estimates, and it is possible that this intensity is conservative. The hurricane has good to excellent cirrus outflow in the northeastern semicircle. The current re-intensification was poorly anticipated, and it is unclear how much more strengthening will occur before Rosa reaches the 26C isotherm in about 12 h. Even if the hurricane strengthens a little more, the combination of decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing shear should cause steady to rapid weakening after 12 h, and the new intensity forecast still calls for the cyclone to weaken below hurricane strength before the center reaches the Baja California peninsula between 48-72 h. After landfall, Rosa is expected to weaken even faster, and the surface circulation is forecast to dissipate just after 72 h in agreement with all of the dynamical models. However, the mid-level circulation and the associated rainfall will continue moving across the southwestern United States after the surface circulation dissipates. The initial motion is now 355/10. During the forecast period, the hurricane will recurve into the westerlies between a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and a large mid- to upper-level trough over California and the adjacent Pacific. This should result in a continued northward motion through tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Sunday. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little faster than, the previous track and lies near the consensus models. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will move near or over the central and northern portions the Baja California peninsula on Monday and Monday night, and then move into the southwestern United States on Tuesday. Key Messages: 1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Mexico, and the Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. 2. Rosa could also bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the central and northern Baja California peninsula starting on Monday. Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 20.5N 118.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 22.0N 118.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 23.9N 118.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 25.9N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 27.7N 116.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 33.0N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Hurricane Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-09-29 16:48:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ROSA RE-INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 the center of Rosa was located near 20.5, -118.4 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 18
2018-09-29 16:48:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 228 WTPZ35 KNHC 291448 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 ...ROSA RE-INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 118.4W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the Pacific Coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pacific Coast of the Baja California Peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Rosa. Additional watches and warnings may be required for this area later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 118.4 West. Rosa is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rosa is expected to start weakening tonight, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical storm late Sunday or on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the Baja California Peninsula, and southern California during this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM PDT. Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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