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Hurricane Rosa Public Advisory Number 19A
2018-09-30 01:32:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 172 WTPZ35 KNHC 292332 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Rosa Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 500 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 ...FLOODING RAINS FROM ROSA EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 118.9W ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pacific Coast of the Baja California Peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Rosa. Additional watches and warnings may be required this evening or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM PDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rosa was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 118.9 West. Rosa is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rosa is expected to start weakening tonight, becoming a tropical storm by late Sunday or Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Between late Sunday and the middle of next week, Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. The Mogollon Rim of Arizona: 2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts would produce life-threatening flash flooding and dangerous debris flows in the deserts, as well as landslides in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California during this weekend and early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Rosa Graphics
2018-09-30 01:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 23:32:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 20:44:50 GMT
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Hurricane Rosa Graphics
2018-09-29 22:44:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 20:44:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Sep 2018 20:44:50 GMT
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Hurricane Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2018-09-29 22:42:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 425 FOPZ15 KNHC 292042 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN DIEGO CA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YUMA AZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) TIJUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ENSENADA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) IS GUADALUPE 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 24(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) PUNTA EUGENIA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P ABREOJOS 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) P PENASCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 2 8(10) 8(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 120W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 9 40(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 25N 120W 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 19
2018-09-29 22:42:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 389 WTPZ45 KNHC 292042 TCDEP5 Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018 The strengthening trend seen earlier has at least slowed, as Rosa has shown little change in organization since the last advisory. The hurricane continues to have a well-defined 30-40 n mi wide eye inside a central dense overcast with cloud tops as cold as -75C. The various satellite intensity estimates have changed little, so the initial intensity remains 90 kt. The hurricane has good to excellent cirrus outflow in the northeastern semicircle, and the outflow has recently improved in the southwestern semicircle. Rosa is now crossing the 26C isotherm, so additional significant strengthening appears unlikely. After 12 h, the combination of decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing shear should cause steady to rapid weakening, and the intensity forecast continues to call for the cyclone to weaken below hurricane strength before the center reaches the Baja California peninsula in just over 48 h. After landfall, the surface circulation is forecast to dissipate near the 72-h point in agreement with all of the dynamical models. However, the mid-level circulation and the associated rainfall will continue moving across the southwestern United States after the surface circulation dissipates. The initial motion is 350/10. During the forecast period, the hurricane will recurve into the westerlies between a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and a large mid- to upper-level trough over California and the adjacent Pacific. This should result in a continued northward motion through tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Sunday. The new forecast track is a little to the left of the previous track for the first 12 h, but otherwise is changed little from the previous track. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa or its remnants will move near or over the central and northern portions the Baja California peninsula on Monday and Monday night, and then move into the southwestern United States on Tuesday. Key Messages: 1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Mexico, and the Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. 2. Rosa could also bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the central and northern Baja California peninsula starting on Monday. Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 21.4N 118.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 22.9N 118.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 24.8N 118.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 26.7N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 28.8N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 34.5N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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