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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 35
2018-09-08 04:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 326 WTNT21 KNHC 080250 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0300 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 53.2W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 20SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 53.2W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 52.8W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.7N 54.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.7N 55.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.7N 56.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N 57.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.8N 62.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 27.5N 68.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 30.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 53.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-07 22:50:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 20:50:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 21:22:15 GMT
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 34
2018-09-07 22:50:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 294 WTNT41 KNHC 072049 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 Little has changed with Florence's structure during the day. The low-level center is located on the southwestern side of the deep convection due to moderate to strong southwesterly shear, and satellite intensity estimates are essentially the same from this morning. Therefore, the estimated maximum winds remain 55 kt. NOAA is scheduled to conduct a research mission with the P-3 aircraft tomorrow, which should provide some useful wind data and give us a better handle on the cyclone's intensity. Vertical shear is still expected to gradually decrease over the next day or two, likely reaching values of 10 kt or less by 48 hours. During this period, Florence should become more vertically stacked, which would allow for some reintensification, possibly back to hurricane strength within 36-48 hours. After 48 hours, the shear is expected to remain generally low, and oceanic heat content values will increase significantly as Florence moves over the waters between Bermuda and the northern Leeward Islands. This is a classic recipe for a quick intensification trend, and Florence is expected to become a major hurricane by days 4 and 5. The generally skillful HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and ICON intensity consensus are all near 110-115 kt by day 5, and because of this, no notable changes were required from the previous official intensity forecast. Florence has been moving south of due west (260 degrees) at 7 kt, located south of a low- to mid-level ridge. The cyclone is expected to continue moving generally westward for the next 48 hours while it remains sheared. As Florence begins to strengthen and become vertically stacked after 48 hours, it should begin to turn west-northwestward, steered by a deeper flow regime. By days 4 and 5, an exceptionally strong blocking ridge is forecast to develop between Bermuda and the Northeast U.S., keeping Florence on a west-northwestward trajectory with an increase in forward speed by the end of the forecast period. A slight southwestward adjustment was made to the NHC forecast to account for Florence's initial motion and a slight shift in the overall guidance envelope. For most of the forecast period, the official forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells are affecting Bermuda and will begin to affect portions of the U.S. East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. 2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along the U.S. East Coast next week has increased. However, there is still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location, magnitude, and timing of these impacts. Interests near and along the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 24.8N 52.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 24.6N 53.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 24.6N 54.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 24.6N 55.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 24.8N 57.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 25.8N 60.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 27.5N 67.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 30.5N 73.0W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-07 22:48:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE POISED TO STRENGTHEN... ...THIS WEEKEND IS A GOOD TIME FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TO REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE PLAN... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 7 the center of Florence was located near 24.8, -52.5 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 34
2018-09-07 22:48:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 084 WTNT31 KNHC 072048 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 ...FLORENCE POISED TO STRENGTHEN... ...THIS WEEKEND IS A GOOD TIME FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST TO REVIEW THEIR HURRICANE PLAN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 52.5W ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 52.5 West. Florence is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the early to middle part of next week. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will move over the waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in intensity is expected during the next day or so, but restrengthening is forecast over the weekend. Florence could become a hurricane again by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and will reach portions of the U.S. East Coast over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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