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Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2018-09-07 22:48:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 085 FONT11 KNHC 072048 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 34
2018-09-07 22:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 791 WTNT21 KNHC 072048 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 52.5W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......100NE 50SE 20SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 52.5W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 52.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.6N 53.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 20SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.6N 54.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.6N 55.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.8N 57.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.8N 60.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 27.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.5N 73.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 52.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 33
2018-09-07 16:47:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 241 WTNT41 KNHC 071447 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 Moderate to strong southwesterly shear continues to affect Florence, but visible and microwave satellite images indicate that the cyclone is maintaining a vigorous, but tilted, circulation. A mid-level eye feature is noted in both types of satellite imagery, but the low-level center still appears displaced to the southwest. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have stopped falling--and some have even begun to increase a bit again--so the initial intensity is being held at 55 kt. The shear over Florence has likely reached its maximum and is expected to decrease below 20 kt in 6-12 hours and then decrease to 10 kt or less in 36 hours. All the while, sea surface temperatures will be gradually increasing to between 28-29C, and perhaps more importantly, oceanic heat content values will double in 3-4 days. It may take the cyclone some time to gather itself once the shear abates, but once it becomes vertically stacked again, the intensity is likely to increase significantly. The guidance is in agreement on this scenario, and Florence is likely to re-attain hurricane status in about 48 hours and then potentially major hurricane strength by days 4-5. The new official forecast is fairly similar to the previous one, generally close to the ICON intensity consensus and slightly below the HCCA model on days 4 and 5. Florence is moving westward, or 270/7 kt, to the south of the eastern periphery of a subtropical ridge extending east of the Mid-Atlantic United States. The global model guidance is actually in fairly good agreement on the general evolution of the steering pattern around Florence through day 5. While it remains a tilted cyclone, Florence is expected to continue moving westward for the next 48 hours. After that time, a break in the ridge should allow Florence to turn west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic. A new mid-level ridge is expected to develop over the western Atlantic on days 4-5, but the position of that high will play a big role regarding how much Florence may turn by the end of the forecast period. Only a slight southward nudge of forecast track was required on this cycle, keeping the NHC prediction between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. Key Messages: 1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells will begin to affect Bermuda later today and portions of the U.S. East Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. 2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along the U.S. East Coast next week has increased. However, there is still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location, magnitude, and timing of these impacts. Interests near and along the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 25.0N 51.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 24.9N 52.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 24.9N 54.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 24.9N 55.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 25.1N 56.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 25.9N 59.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 27.5N 65.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 30.0N 72.0W 115 KT 130 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-07 16:44:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 14:44:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Sep 2018 15:22:10 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Florence (AT1/AL062018)
2018-09-07 16:42:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FLORENCE'S WEAKENING APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED FOR THE MOMENT... ...RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 7 the center of Florence was located near 25.0, -51.8 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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