je.st
news
Tag: florence
Tropical Storm Florence Public Advisory Number 20
2018-09-04 10:38:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Sep 04 2018 773 WTNT31 KNHC 040837 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Tue Sep 04 2018 ...FLORENCE STILL JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 42.0W ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1300 MI...2090 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 42.0 West. Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days followed by a turn toward the northwest around Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight, but some weakening is forecast on Wednesday. Afterward, gradual strengthening is forecast through the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Storm Florence Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2018-09-04 10:38:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 768 FONT11 KNHC 040837 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Advisory Number 20
2018-09-04 10:37:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 397 WTNT21 KNHC 040837 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC TUE SEP 04 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 42.0W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 42.0W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 41.5W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.9N 43.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.8N 45.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.8N 48.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.9N 50.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.2N 53.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 27.1N 55.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 29.1N 57.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 42.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
storm
advisory
tropical
Tropical Storm Florence Graphics
2018-09-04 04:32:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 04 Sep 2018 02:32:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 04 Sep 2018 03:22:05 GMT
Tags: graphics
storm
tropical
florence
Tropical Storm Florence Forecast Discussion Number 19
2018-09-04 04:31:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 605 WTNT41 KNHC 040231 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018 Although Florence continues to produce a fairly circular area of deep convection, microwave images have revealed that there is a significant southwest-to-northeast vertical tilt of the circulation due to southwesterly shear. The initial intensity is held at 60 kt, using a blend of the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. This estimate is a little below the latest automated Dvorak values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. The strong tropical storm is moving west-northwestward, or 285 degrees, at 12 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. The storm is expected to gradually turn northwestward with a decrease in forward speed during the next several days as it moves toward a persistent weakness in the subtropical ridge. There remains a fair amount of spread in the guidance, especially in the 3- to 5-day time period, but the consensus aids have changed little this cycle. Therefore, no significant changes were made to the previous forecast, and this one lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Little change in strength is expected through early Tuesday as Florence remains over marginally warm waters and in moderate wind shear conditions. Slight weakening is expected during the middle part of the week due to a gradual increase in southwesterly or westerly shear. Beyond that time, however, the shear is expected to decrease and Florence will be over much warmer waters. Therefore, slow strengthening is shown at the end of the forecast period. This forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the HCCA guidance. The 34- and 50-kt initial wind radii have been expanded outward based on recent ASCAT passes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 18.9N 41.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 19.4N 42.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.1N 44.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 21.1N 47.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 22.1N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 24.5N 53.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 26.8N 55.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 28.4N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Sites : [80] [81] [82] [83] [84] [85] [86] [87] [88] [89] [90] [91] [92] [93] [94] [95] [96] [97] [98] [99] next »