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Hurricane Henri Forecast Discussion Number 25
2021-08-22 04:49:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220249 TCDAT3 Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 The convective pattern associated with Henri is less ragged than it was 6 h ago, as the convection has increased near the center and a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a 25 n mi wide eye has formed However, the hurricane has not yet strengthened significantly, as the maximum winds remain about 65 kt in the southeastern eyewall and the central pressure is near 987 mb. Henri has moved a little to the right of the previous track at 18-20 kt during the past several hours. However, the cyclone now seems to be moving northward with an initial motion of 355/18 kt. There is no change to the forecast track philosophy. A cut-off low located over the central Appalachians and a ridge building to the east and northeast of Henri should cause the storm to move generally northward tonight. A turn toward the north-northwest and a slower forward speed are expected on Sunday, which should bring the center near or over southern New England or Long Island between 18-24 h. With the more eastward initial position, the forecast track is shifted a bit to the east of the previous forecast. However, there is still some uncertainty of the landfall point, as several of the guidance models are to the left of the official forecast. After landfall, Henri should slow its forward speed and turn eastward as it become steered by the mid-latitude westerlies. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 24-hour track uncertainty is around 40 miles and impacts will extend well away from the center. Henri is almost out of time to strengthen, as the center will be moving north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream during the next several hours. The intensity forecast will call for modest strengthening during the first 12 h based on the premise that strengthening will occur before Henri reaches the cooler waters. After that, while the cyclone should start to weaken before landfall, it should still be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches southern New England. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and Henri is again forecast to become post-tropical in about 48 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions will begin in these areas late tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New England, eastern New York and New Jersey. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 38.6N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 40.3N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 41.9N 71.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1200Z 43.1N 71.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/0000Z 43.9N 70.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 24/1200Z 44.4N 68.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 25/0000Z 44.8N 63.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Henri Forecast Advisory Number 25
2021-08-22 04:48:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 220248 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MONTAUK POINT TO FLUSHING NEW YORK * FLUSHING NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MASTIC NEW YORK * NORTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * CAPE COD BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK POINT * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS * BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET * WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET * COASTAL NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MANASQUAN INLET...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 71.0W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 130SE 100SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 71.0W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 70.9W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.3N 71.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.9N 71.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 100SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 43.1N 71.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 43.9N 70.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 44.4N 68.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 44.8N 63.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 71.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Remnants of Grace Forecast Discussion Number 34
2021-08-21 22:45:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 212045 TCDAT2 Remnants Of Grace Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 The mountainous terrain of Mexico has taken its toll on Grace. Surface observations and high-resolution visible satellite images indicate that the system no longer has a definite surface circulation, and Grace has degenerated into a trough to the west of Mexico City. Therefore, this is the last advisory on this system. Although the surface center has dissipated, the mid-tropospheric remnants of Grace are expected to continue westward, and to emerge into the eastern Pacific Ocean by late Sunday. There is high likelihood that this will lead to the formation of a new tropical cyclone over that basin by early next week. For additional information on this possibility, see the eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS header MIATWOEP, WMO header ABPZ20 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov. Key Messages: 1. Through tonight, lingering heavy rainfall from the remnants of Grace may result in additional areas of flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides, over central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 19.6N 100.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Remnants of Grace Forecast Advisory Number 34
2021-08-21 22:43:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 212043 TCMAT2 REMNANTS OF GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 100.1W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 100.1W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 99.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 100.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Henri Forecast Discussion Number 24
2021-08-21 22:33:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 212033 TCDAT3 Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 Visible satellite images and microwave data indicate that a tight inner core has formed in association with Henri, but the convective pattern appears ragged in infrared images. An ASCAT pass from earlier today indicated that the 34- and 50-kt winds continue to expand in the southeastern quadrant, and that data was used to update the initial wind radii. The latest Dvorak estimates range from 55 to 77 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters will be investigating Henri this evening. Henri is moving faster to the north-northeast, or 020 degrees, at 16 kt. There continues to be little change to the forecast track philosophy. A cut-off low located over the central Appalachians and a ridge building to the east and northeast of Henri should cause the storm to continue moving north-northeastward through tonight. A decresae in forward speed and a slight bend to the left is then forecast to occur on Sunday. The latest model guidance has shifted slightly to the right, and the NHC official track forecast has been nudged in that direction. This forecast shows landfall over eastern Long Island and southern Connecticut in about 24 hours. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 24-hour track uncertainty is around 40 miles and impacts will extend well away from the center. The environment looks favorable for Henri to strengthen through tonight with low shear, upper-level divergence associated with the upper-level trough, and warm SSTs. In fact, SST analyses indicate that Henri will be passing over a patch of very warm 30 deg C waters this evening. By early Sunday Henri is predicted to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream. That should result in some weakening, but Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength at landfall. Once the center moves inland over the northeast United States, rapid weakening is expected. Henri is forecast to become post-tropical in about 48 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions will begin in these areas tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New England, eastern New York and New Jersey. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 36.3N 71.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 38.8N 71.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 40.8N 72.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 42.1N 72.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1800Z 43.3N 71.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/0600Z 43.6N 69.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 24/1800Z 44.3N 68.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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