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Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Advisory Number 1

2021-08-26 16:45:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 261444 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING GRAND CAYMAN...LITTLE CAYMAN...AND CAYMAN BRAC. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...HAVANA...ARTEMISA... PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 79.2W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 79.2W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 79.0W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.2N 80.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.3N 82.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.5N 83.9W...OVER WESTERN CUBA MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W...OVER SOUTHEASTERN GULF MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 26.1N 88.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.7N 90.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 33.7N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 79.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 26/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

2021-08-26 10:38:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 260838 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that convection is increasing near the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E, but it is occurring in bands that are not showing a lot of curvature at this time. Satellite intensity estimates are currently 35 kt from SAB and 30 kt from TAFB, and the CIMSS ADT and satellite consensus techniques are also in the 30-35 kt range. In addition, earlier scatterometer data showed 25-30 kt winds, although there was no data close to the center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/7 kt. The cyclone is being steered generally westward along the southern extent of a mid-level ridge over the south-central United States. A deep-layer trough over the western U.S. is forecast to weaken this ridge during the next couple of days, with the cyclone moving northwestward to north-northwestward as a result. The track guidance continues to show a motion close to the coast of southwestern Mexico between 48-72 h, and the GFS and Canadian models on the eastern side of the guidance show a landfall in Mexico. The ECMWF model is farther to the left and keeps the system offshore of Mexico, while the UKMET is between these extremes and keeps the center offshore of mainland Mexico before taking the system near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. The forecast track is similar to the previous track, following the consensus models in keeping the center offshore of mainland Mexico before coming near Baja California Sur. However, there remains above average uncertainty in the track forecast, and interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico and in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the progress of the system and potential changes to the forecast. The depression is currently being affected by northeasterly vertical shear, which is likely to persist for another 24 h. After that time, conditions appear favorable for strengthening if the center stays far enough offshore. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The 48-120 h portion of the forecast again has lower than average confidence due to the possibility of land interaction. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm on Thursday and be near hurricane intensity by Saturday or Saturday night. While the core of the storm is currently expected to pass near but offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds and heavy rainfall, possibly resulting in flash floods and mudslides, could affect portions of that area over the next several days. Interests in this area should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. The system is forecast to pass near the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 12.0N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 12.8N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 13.9N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 15.2N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 19.5N 106.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 21.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-08-26 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 260837 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0900 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.6W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.6W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.8N 101.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.9N 102.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.2N 104.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N 106.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 21.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 100.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2021-08-26 04:43:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 260243 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 Recent satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that the depression has not become better organized this evening. It is producing a ragged area of convection over the northwestern portion of its circulation, which appears somewhat elongated along an east-west axis. The latest UW-CIMSS objective ADT estimate and subjective 00z Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of 30 kt for this advisory. The estimated initial motion of the poorly organized depression is an uncertain 280/6 kt. The cyclone is being steered generally westward along the southern extent of a mid-level ridge over the south-central United States. A deep-layer trough over the western U.S. is forecast to weaken the steering ridge during the next couple of days. Thus, the depression is forecast to gain some latitude and move west-northwestward overnight and Thursday, and then northwestward or north-northwestward on Friday and Saturday. Although the track guidance consensus and many GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members still keep the center of the cyclone offshore, there was a pronounced eastward shift in the guidance envelope this cycle. In fact, the GFS and several GEFS members show the system moving inland along the coast of southwestern Mexico in 2-3 days. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right of the previous one from 48 h onward and lies along the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) aid. This brings the center of the cyclone closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico, but remains offshore and to the left of much of the latest guidance. The extended forecast takes the system near the southern portion of Baja California Sur early next week, but overall there is above average uncertainty in the extended portion of the track forecast. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico and in Baja California Sur should closely monitor future updates to the forecast. The depression is located within a favorable thermodynamic environment for strengthening, but moderate to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear should limit its intensification rate in the short-term period. The shear is expected to weaken by Friday, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane this weekend over very warm SSTs. There remains a large amount of spread in the intensity guidance beyond 48 h, due to the potential for land interaction earlier in the forecast period. Since the latest NHC track forecast keeps the system offshore, the intensity forecast is much higher than the consensus aids during this period and trends toward the stronger statistical-dynamical guidance. Again, confidence is lower than normal in the day 3-5 forecast. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm on Thursday and be near hurricane intensity by Saturday. While the core of the storm is currently expected to pass near but offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds and heavy rainfall, possibly resulting in flash floods and mudslides, could affect portions of that area over the next several days. Interests in this area should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. The system is forecast to pass near the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 11.9N 100.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 12.3N 101.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 13.1N 102.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 14.2N 103.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 15.6N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 17.2N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 18.8N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 21.3N 108.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 31/0000Z 23.0N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2

2021-08-26 04:41:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 260241 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0300 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.1W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.1W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 99.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.3N 101.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.1N 102.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.2N 103.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.6N 104.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.2N 105.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.8N 106.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 21.3N 108.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 23.0N 111.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 100.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

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