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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 5

2021-08-26 22:38:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 262037 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Scatterometer data from around midday showed that Nora has an expansive circulation with tropical-storm-force winds nearly reaching the coast of Mexico. The data also showed a possible center embedded within a larger area of light winds, but it is possible that there's another similar feature farther west where the instrument did not sample. Nora's winds remain 35 kt based on the ASCAT pass and the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB, and the center has been placed between the two dumb-belling vorticity maxima. Even with the updated position, Nora is moving toward the west-northwest (285/8 kt), to the south of mid-level ridging over the southern United States. A shortwave trough currently over the northern Rockies is expected to erode the ridge over the next 12-24 hours, allowing Nora to turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest by the weekend. Even with the GFS's solution of multiple swirls consolidating over the next day or so, the 12Z run shifted left and now shows Nora potentially moving inland over Mexico farther west than it had in previous runs. A few of the other models--for example the HWRF and HMON--also bring the center inland as well, but the bulk of the interpolated model trackers continue to keep Nora just offshore but very near the coast of southwestern Mexico in about 48 hours. Model spread remains larger than normal, but no significant changes were required from the previous NHC track forecast based on the latest guidance suite. After passing southwestern Mexico, Nora is expected to be over Baja California Sur or the Gulf of California on days 4 and 5. Moderate northeasterly shear continues to affect Nora, but that shear is expected to decrease to a less-intrusive magnitude during the next 24 hours. Along with warm sea surface temperatures of 28-30 degrees Celsius, a moist mid-level environment, and upper-level divergence, Nora is expected to strengthen in the coming days. The rate of intensification could, however, be tempered by Nora's large size and structure. Assuming Nora does not move inland over southwestern Mexico, the storm is expected to become a hurricane on Saturday and then possibly continue strengthening up until the point it reaches the Baja California Peninsula. Much of the intensity guidance is based on scenarios showing Nora moving inland, which is suppressing the intensity consensus aids. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast is mostly based on the ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM models, since the parent ECMWF model does not show Nora moving inland. Given Nora's larger wind field, tropical-storm-force winds are likely to reach the coast of Mexico earlier than expected. Therefore, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. The Hurricane Watch issued earlier today also remains in effect. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by Saturday while it is near the coast of southwestern Mexico, and a hurricane watch and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that area. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides could occur. 3. Nora is forecast to be near the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 13.4N 101.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 14.1N 102.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 15.3N 103.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 16.8N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 18.6N 105.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 29/0600Z 20.3N 106.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 21.6N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 23.6N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER BAJA CAL SUR 120H 31/1800Z 25.2N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER BAJA CAL SUR $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-08-26 22:37:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 262036 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 2100 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO MANZANILLO MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 101.7W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......180NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 101.7W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 101.1W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.1N 102.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.3N 103.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.8N 104.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.6N 105.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.3N 106.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.6N 107.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 23.6N 110.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 25.2N 111.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 101.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 27/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Discussion Number 1

2021-08-26 16:56:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 261456 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Early morning visible satellite imagery shows that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure over west-central Caribbean Sea has become better defined. There has also been an increase in the organization of the associated convective activity, and based on consensus Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from TAFB and SAB, advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in agreement with the subjective satellite estimates. The official reporting station in Kingston, Jamaica, has reported sustained winds of 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt during the past couple of hours. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the system later this afternoon to provide more information on the system's structure and intensity. The depression is moving northwestward or 325/11 kt, however the initial motion is a bit more uncertain than normal since the low- level center has only recently formed. The cyclone is forecast to move steadily northwestward around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge centered over the western Atlantic. This track should bring the center near or over western Cuba late Friday, over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico Friday night and Saturday, and have the center approach the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. The track guidance is in relatively good agreement, however the average NHC track forecast error at day 4 is around 175 miles, so users should not focus on the details of the long range track forecast. Some shifts in the track are likely until the system consolidates and becomes better defined. The NHC track is near the various consensus model aids and is in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean. The depression will be moving over the high ocean heat content waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next 24-36 hours. This, in combination with low vertical wind shear and a moist environment, should allow for steady strengthening. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight, and could approach hurricane strength as it passes near or over western Cuba. Once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, conditions are expected to be conducive for additional strengthening, and rapid intensification is explicitly shown in the NHC forecast between 48 and 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast brings the system near major hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday. This forecast is supported by the HWRF and CTCI models, and the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global model guidance, which all significantly deepen the cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, there is higher-than-normal confidence that a strengthening tropical cyclone will be moving over the Gulf this weekend. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are likely in portions of the Cayman Islands tonight and western Cuba Friday and Friday night, with dangerous storm surge possible in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, in areas of onshore flow. 2. The system is expected to produce life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth and northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. 3. This system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast at or near major hurricane intensity on Sunday, although the forecast uncertainty is larger than usual since the system is just forming. There is a risk of life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall Sunday and Monday along the northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle to the upper Texas coast, with the greatest risk along the coast of Louisiana. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 16.9N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 18.2N 80.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 20.3N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 22.5N 83.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 28/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 29/0000Z 26.1N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 27.7N 90.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 30.5N 92.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 120H 31/1200Z 33.7N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-08-26 16:47:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 373 WTPZ44 KNHC 261447 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Satellite images show that deep convection embedded within the sprawling circulation of the depression is gradually becoming better organized, and 91-GHz SSMIS data from 1117 UTC showed improved curvature to the bands, especially within the western semicircle. Subjective Dvorak estimates are now a consensus T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, while objective numbers from UW-CIMSS are running a little higher. Therefore, the depression is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Nora with 35-kt winds. The microwave data, as well as first-light visible imagery, suggest that the center may be consolidating or re-forming a little farther east of where we had been tracking it. Nora is moving slowly toward the west-northwest (296/6 kt), steered by a strong mid-level ridge located over the southern United States. This ridge is expected to dissolve over the next 24 hours as a shortwave trough moves across the Rocky Mountains, allowing Nora to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest through the weekend. Most of the differences among the track models still appear to be related to the initial location of Nora's center. The GFS continues to show the system having multiple low-level vortices, with a dominant one forming well to the east and moving inland along the southwestern coast of Mexico as early as late Friday, and many more GEFS ensemble members show a similar scenario compared to yesterday. The HWRF and HMON are also in the camp of bringing Nora's center inland over Mexico. Other models, including the ECMWF (and most of its ensemble members), the UKMET, and the consensus aids, still show Nora's center staying just offshore. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted eastward, primarily due to the adjustment of the initial position, and shows Nora's center very close to the coast of southwestern Mexico over the weekend. If Nora's center re-forms, then additional shifts in the track forecast will be likely. By early next week, Nora is likely to head towards Baja California Sur, but here is still a lot of uncertainty on the exact track at that time. Moderate northeasterly vertical shear continues to affect Nora, but this shear is expected to decrease to 10 kt or less in 36-48 hours. In addition, the storm will be moving over warm waters of 28-29 degrees Celsius and through an environment of high mid-level moisture. These factors should allow for continued strengthening, although the system's large size could be one limiting factor in how fast that strengthening happens. Nora is expected to be near or at hurricane strength when it approaches the coast of southwestern Mexico in 2-3 days. However, the intensity forecast, especially on days 3-5, hinges on whether or not the center moves inland. If it does not, Nora will have greater opportunity to strengthen while it heads toward the Baja California Peninsula. Since several of the intensity models assume a scenario where Nora moves inland, the NHC intensity forecast more closely follows the no-land versions of the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS models through day 4 to be consistent with what is shown in the track forecast. Given the high uncertainty in Nora's future track, and its roughly shore-parallel path, a larger-than-normal hurricane watch area has been issued for the southwestern coast of Mexico by the Mexican government. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by late Saturday while it approaches the coast of southwestern Mexico, and hurricane and tropical storm watches are now in effect for portions of that area. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides could occur. 3. Nora is forecast to be near the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 12.5N 100.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 13.2N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 14.3N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 15.7N 103.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 17.4N 104.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 20.2N 106.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 22.3N 108.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 24.0N 110.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 4

2021-08-26 16:47:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 261446 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. WARNINGS OR ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 100.8W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 100.8W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 100.4W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.2N 101.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.3N 103.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.7N 103.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.4N 104.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.2N 106.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.3N 108.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 24.0N 110.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 100.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 26/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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