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Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-08-23 16:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231432 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marty Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 Marty is now a sheared tropical cyclone owing to northeasterly vertical wind shear of about 15 kt, which has displaced the bulk of the deep convection, with cloud tops colder than -80C, into the western semicircle. The low-level center is estimated be located near the northeastern edge of the sharp convective cloud shield. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and an objective estimate of T2.6/37 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial motion remains westward or 280/13 kt. A strong deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north of Marty is forecast by the global and regional models to remain entrenched across the eastern Pacific basin, keeping Marty moving in a general westward direction for the next couple of days. On days 3 and 4, the ridge is forecast build southward slightly, nudging the cyclone in a west-southwestward direction. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but slightly north, or right, of the previous advisory track, and is also a little south of the tightly packed consensus track models which have shifted northward on this cycle. The moderate northeasterly shear currently affecting Marty is forecast to gradually decrease to 10 kt or less and also become easterly during the next 24-36 hours while the cyclone remains over sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 26 deg C or greater. These favorable conditions should allow for at least slight strengthening during that time. Although the shear is expected to remain low through the remainder of the forecast period, Marty will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and into a drier and more stable airmass. Those unfavorable environmental conditions should combine to erode the central deep convection and weaken the cyclone on days 3 and 4. Marty is forecast to become a depression on Wednesday, degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday, and dissipate on Friday. The official intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous NHC forecast, and is about 5 kt above all of the available intensity guidance through 60 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 20.5N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 20.6N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 20.6N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 20.5N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 20.4N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 20.3N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 20.2N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z 19.3N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-08-23 10:37:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230837 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marty Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 Recent scatterometer wind data indicate that the circulation associated with the low pressure area located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become better defined. In addition, convective activity has persisted and expanded over the western portion of the circulation overnight, resulting in Dvorak T-numbers of 1.5 and 2.0 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Both ASCAT-A and B instruments revealed 30 to 35 kt winds over the western portion of the circulation and based on these data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Marty, the thirteenth named-storm of the 2021 eastern Pacific hurricane season. Marty is moving westward at about 13 kt. A strong mid-tropospheric ridge that extends from the south-central United States westward across northern Mexico and the eastern Pacific is forecast to steer Marty westward over the next couple of days. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to weaken and become vertically shallow. This should cause it to turn toward the west-southwest as it steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The dynamical model guidance is in excellent agreement, and the NHC track is near the middle of the tightly clustered model envelope. Although the tropical storm is currently located over warm waters, it is within an area of moderate northeasterly shear. In addition, it is likely to ingest drier and more stable air located to the northwest of the system over the next couple of days. As a result, only slight strengthening is indicated in the official forecast. By 36 hours, Marty is forecast to cross the 26C isotherm and gradual weakening is anticipated after that time. Less favorable thermodynamic conditions should result in the system becoming a remnant low in 60 to 72 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 20.0N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 20.3N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 20.4N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 20.2N 118.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 20.1N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 20.0N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z 19.8N 124.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z 19.0N 129.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-08-23 10:35:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 230835 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 0900 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 111.0W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 111.0W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 20.3N 113.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.4N 116.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.2N 118.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.1N 120.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.0N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.8N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 19.0N 129.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 111.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Henri Forecast Discussion Number 29
2021-08-23 04:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230243 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Henri Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Henri has continued to weaken over land and synoptic surface observations indicate that its maximum winds have decreased to near 25 kt. A little more weakening is likely during the next 48 hours, and simulated satellite imagery from the global models indicate that the system will be post-tropical after its expected re-emergence into the Atlantic in 36 hours or so. Beyond 48 hours the dynamical guidance suggests that the system will lose its identity. Satellite imagery and surface data indicate that the center is moving slowly west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt. Henri is interacting with another cyclonic circulation over the northeastern United States. As a result of this interaction, the tropical cyclone is expected to briefly come to a halt overnight, turn toward the east-northeast on Monday, and continue an east-northeastward motion into Tuesday. The official forecast track is similar to the dynamical model consensus, TVCN. Although Henri's winds are weakening, the cyclone will still continue to be a prolific rain producer, resulting in significant flooding across southern New England and portions of the northern mid-Atlantic states for the next day or two. This is the last advisory by the National Hurricane Center on Henri. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue to lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New England, eastern New York, New Jersey and northeast Pennsylvania. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 41.9N 73.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 23/1200Z 42.1N 73.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/0000Z 42.4N 72.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1200Z 42.8N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 25/0000Z 43.4N 65.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 28
2021-08-22 22:53:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 222053 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Henri's satellite and radar signatures have continued to erode during the day today owing to moderate southeasterly vertical wind shear and entrainment of drier and more stable air off of the cooler Atlantic waters. The primary rain shield has shifted into the western semicircle, which is typical for tropical cyclones that are in the early stages of undergoing extratropical transition. Doppler radar velocity data from Upton, New York, and Boston, Massachusetts, along with surface observations indicate that Henri's peak winds have continued to decrease, with any tropical-storm-force winds now confined to the offshore waters of Long Island Sound. Additional spin down of the vortex and weakening of the low-level wind field are anticipated due to land interaction and entrainment of additional stable air. As a result of these unfavorable conditions, Henri should weaken to a tropical depression this evening, and become a post-tropical remnant low by Monday afternoon or evening. Henri is now moving west-northwestward or 290/06 kt. The tropical storm has finally made the much anticipated sharp turn toward the west-northwest around the northeastern periphery of a mid- to upper-level low currently located over southern New Jersey. These two weather systems are forecast to slowly dumbbell in a counter- clockwise motion, with Henri's circulation absorbing the other low by Monday morning, possibly resulting in Henri stalling near the New York-Connecticut border. By early Monday afternoon, a weak mid-tropospheric shortwave currently moving across the Great Lakes region is expected to eject the cyclone or its remnants eastward to east-northeastward across southern New England and into the Gulf of Maine by Monday night, before dissipating near or over Nova Scotia on Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and remains close to the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models TVCA, HCCA, and FSSE. Although Henri's winds will be weakening, the cyclone will still continue to be a prolific rain producer, resulting in significant flooding across southern New England and portions of the northern mid-Atlantic states for the next day or two. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue to lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New England, eastern New York, New Jersey and northeast Pennsylvania. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 41.6N 72.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 23/0600Z 42.0N 73.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1800Z 42.6N 73.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0600Z 43.0N 70.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 24/1800Z 43.6N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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