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Tropical Depression Marty Forecast Advisory Number 6

2021-08-24 16:32:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 241432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 1500 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 118.1W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 118.1W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 117.5W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.6N 119.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.6N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.6N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.5N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.2N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.6N 130.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 118.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Discussion Number 5

2021-08-24 10:39:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240838 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marty Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Marty is currently a swirl of low-level clouds with no associated convection, with this likely due to a combination of northeasterly vertical shear and marginal sea surface temperatures. Recent ASCAT data shows maximum winds of 30-35 kt over a small area in the northern semicircle, so the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt. The initial motion is still westward, but slower than before, at 270/11 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north of Marty will continue to steer the cyclone generally westward over the next day or two. After that, the weakening cyclone is expected to turn west- southwestward during the latter part of the week within the low-level trade wind flow. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little slower than the previous forecast, and it lies near the various consensus models. Although the current shear is forecast to diminish, a combination of decreasing sea surface temperatures and a dryer air mass along the forecast track should cause continued gradual weakening. The new intensity forecast shows the system weakening to a depression in about 24 h and degenerating to a remnant low by 48 h. If convection does not re-develop near the center, both of these events could occur earlier than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 20.6N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 20.6N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 20.6N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 20.7N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 20.6N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 26/1800Z 20.4N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z 19.8N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z 18.5N 134.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Discussion Number 4

2021-08-24 04:36:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 23 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240236 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marty Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 23 2021 Northeasterly vertical wind shear continues to disrupt the organization of Marty. The limited shower activity associated with the cyclone remains displaced to the southwest of its exposed low-level center. Despite its poor satellite appearance for much of the day, earlier scatterometer data showed 35 to 40-kt winds in the sheared cyclone. The latest objective satellite estimates and subjective Dvorak classifications support an intensity of 35 kt. However, the initial intensity for this advisory is conservatively held at 40 kt, with hopes that new scatterometer data become available overnight to better reassess Marty's intensity. Marty is moving westward, or 270/15 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north of Marty will continue to steer the cyclone generally westward over the next couple days. Then, the weakening cyclone is forecast to turn west-southwestward during the latter part of the week within the low-level trade wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast is adjusted just a bit south of the previous one, near the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the multi-model consensus aids. Despite the modest wind shear values diagnosed from the SHIPS guidance, Marty is clearly struggling to maintain organized convection. Furthermore, Marty only has a brief window over sufficiently warm SSTs before it crosses the 26 deg C isotherm on Tuesday and moves into a drier, more stable airmass. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected to begin on Tuesday and continue through the rest of the week. In fact, the latest global model simulated satellite imagery suggests Marty could struggle to generate any organized convection beyond tonight's convective maximum period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged. Marty is forecast to weaken to a depression by early Wednesday, degenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday night, and dissipate late this week. But, it is possible these changes could occur even sooner than forecast if Marty's convective structure does not improve soon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 20.7N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 20.7N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 20.7N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 20.7N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 20.7N 123.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 26/1200Z 20.5N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z 20.1N 128.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z 18.7N 133.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Advisory Number 4

2021-08-24 04:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 937 WTPZ23 KNHC 240234 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 115.8W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 115.8W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.7N 117.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.7N 119.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.7N 121.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.7N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 18.7N 133.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Advisory Number 3

2021-08-23 22:41:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 581 WTPZ23 KNHC 232041 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 2100 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 114.1W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 40SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 114.1W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 113.4W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.0N 116.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 21.0N 118.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.0N 120.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.9N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.9N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.8N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 19.4N 131.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 114.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number storm advisory tropical

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