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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 20
2021-08-20 22:40:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 202040 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT...THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM OYSTER BAY TO MONTAUK POINT...FROM GREENWICH CONNECTICUT TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NANTUCKET... MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT...FOR THE NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK POINT...AND FROM NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...TO WEST OF WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MANASQUAN INLET NEW JERSEY TO WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM OYSTER BAY TO MONTAUK POINT * GREENWICH CONNECTICUT TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF MASTIC BEACH TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF OYSTER BAY TO FLUSHING * FLUSHING NEW YORK TO WEST OF GREENWICH CONNECTICUT * NORTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * CAPE COD BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK POINT * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANASQUAN INLET NEW JERSEY TO WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 73.9W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 73.9W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 73.8W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 32.8N 73.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.8N 72.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.9N 71.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.8N 72.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.0N 72.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 42.9N 72.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 43.8N 68.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 73.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Grace Forecast Discussion Number 29
2021-08-20 16:48:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 201448 TCDAT2 Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Grace is a strengthening tropical cyclone. Its structure has continued to improve in satellite imagery this morning, with more pronounced curved banding in its northern and eastern semicircles and good upper-level outflow. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 92 kt and peak SFMR winds of 74 kt during a pass through the northeast quadrant earlier this morning. These data support increasing the initial intensity of 75 kt, which makes Grace a hurricane once again. Dropsonde data from the aircraft indicate the minimum pressure has fallen to 982 mb. The warm waters of the Bay of Campeche are expected to support additional intensification through landfall in mainland Mexico later this evening or tonight, despite some light to moderate northerly wind shear. Since the reconnaissance data revealed Grace is strengthening quicker than previously forecast, the official NHC intensity forecast was increased in the short-term. Grace is now forecast to become a 90-kt hurricane in 12 h, which lies on the high end of the intensity guidance. The center of Grace will be well inland by 24 h, and rapid weakening is forecast thereafter as the cyclone moves over the mountains of central Mexico. Although Grace is forecast to dissipate by 48 h, its remnants will likely move into the eastern Pacific and lead to the development of a new tropical cyclone later this weekend or early next week. The cyclone is moving just south of due west, or 265/12 kt. Grace should continue moving westward to west-southwestward through landfall to the south of a mid-level ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The official NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope and has been adjusted just a bit southward based on the latest multi-model consensus aids. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along portions of eastern mainland Mexico beginning late today within the Hurricane Warning area from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo. 2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 20.6N 94.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 20.4N 95.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/0000Z 19.4N 101.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Hurricane Grace Forecast Advisory Number 29
2021-08-20 16:46:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 201446 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 94.3W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......160NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 60SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 94.3W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 93.7W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.4N 95.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 80SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.0N 98.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.4N 101.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 94.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 20/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-08-20 16:45:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 201445 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated Henri this morning and based on the flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde data, the initial intensity is still around 55 kt. The minimum pressure has also been relatively steady. The low-level center of Henri is located close to the northwestern edge of the main area of deep convection, and the vortex is still not vertically aligned due to 20-25 kt of northerly vertical wind shear. Although the intensity of Henri has not changed much during the past couple of days, satellite images show an improving cloud pattern with well- established outflow in the eastern semicircle, which could indicate that Henri is poised to strengthen. There is some uncertainty in the exact position of Henri given the recent aircraft fixes and the tilt of the vortex, but the initial motion appears to be northwestward at 6 kt. A trough over the central Appalachians is expected to cut off tonight, and the combination of that feature and a building ridge to the east/northeast of Henri should cause the storm to turn northward tonight and accelerate in that direction on Saturday. Some of the models show a slight bend to the west around the time Henri is forecast to make landfall on Sunday, and there remains a fair amount spread in the guidance in where the center of Henri will come ashore. The latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble members span a region from near New York City to Cape Cod for the landfall point. Based on the latest consensus aids and initial position, the official track forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one and shows landfall occurring by late Sunday. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject northeastward across the Gulf of Maine. The ongoing northerly shear is expected to decrease later today, and the global models show a favorable upper-level wind pattern developing over the storm later today through the weekend. These more conducive atmospheric conditions combined with the warm Gulf Stream waters should allow Henri to strengthen to a hurricane tonight or early Saturday with additional intensification expected into Saturday night. By early Sunday, however, Henri is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and that should end its opportunity for strengthening. Although steady to rapid weakening is forecast while Henri moves over cooler waters south of New England, it will likely still be at or very near hurricane intensity when it reaches the coast. Post-tropical transition is forecast to occur in 3 to 4 days, and the new forecast shows Henri dissipated by day 5, in agreement with most of the global models. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of southern New England Sunday into Monday. 3. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 30.4N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 31.5N 73.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 34.1N 72.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 37.3N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 39.8N 71.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 41.4N 71.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1200Z 42.4N 71.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/1200Z 43.7N 69.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 18
2021-08-20 10:59:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200859 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Henri's low-level center has been peaking out from under the north side of the deep convective mass, resulting from continued 20-25 kt of northerly shear. Maximum winds are still estimated to be 55 kt based on T3.5 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Henri still has a motion toward the west-northwest, or 300/8 kt, but it is about ready to make the sharp right turn that we've been expecting. A shortwave trough currently over the central Appalachians is forecast to close off by Saturday, with Henri accelerating northward on the east side of this feature through the weekend. Some global models show Henri merging with the mid-/upper-level low as the cyclone approaches southern New England, which induces a slight bend of Henri's forecast track to the left. Nearly all track models now show Henri's center reaching the coast of southern New England, and the new NHC track forecast has been nudged westward in the direction of HCCA and the other consensus aids. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject northeastward across the Gulf of Maine toward Atlantic Canada. The strong shear affecting Henri is forecast to begin weakening later today, and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that it could drop to less than 10 kt in about 36 hours. In addition, Henri will be traversing very warm waters for the next 48 hours before it crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Therefore, strengthening is anticipated for the next 2 days, with Henri likely to become a hurricane by Saturday. After 48 hours, Henri's expected slower motion over the colder water south of New England should induce quick weakening, but it may not be quick enough to keep Henri from reaching the coast as a hurricane. Faster weakening is anticipated after Henri's center moves over land, and simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest that deep convection could dissipate by day 4, making Henri a post-tropical low at that time. Global models suggest that Henri may dissipate by day 5, but for the time being a day 5 point is being kept for continuity. Based on the new forecast, tropical-storm-force wind radii will be approaching the coast of southern New England in about 48 hours. Given the still-present uncertainties in Henri's future track and intensity and the hazards that the storm may cause, storm surge and hurricane watches are now being issued for portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast points as impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S. on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island are increasing. Hurricane and storm surge watches are now in effect for portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts. Additional watches or warnings may be required later today. 2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding over portions of southern New England Sunday into Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 30.2N 73.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 31.0N 73.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 33.0N 72.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 36.1N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 39.1N 71.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 41.1N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 42.2N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 24/0600Z 43.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/0600Z 45.3N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg
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