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Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Discussion Number 5

2021-08-27 16:49:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 271449 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Ida Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021 Radar imagery from Grand Cayman and Cuba as well as satellite data continue to show an improvement in Ida's overall structure this morning, with an increase in banding, the development of a small central dense overcast, and more recently an improved inner-core feature. Both the NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft reported that the pressure has fallen to around 996 mb, and the Air Force plane has measured flight-level and SFMR winds that support an initial intensity of 55 kt. Although there is still some southwesterly shear over Ida, the outflow has begun to expand over the northeastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. The upper-level trough near the Yucatan peninsula that has been imparting the shear over Ida is forecast to weaken and move westward during the next 12 to 24 hours, which should result in a more favorable upper-level wind pattern. This, in combination with warm sea surface temperatures and a moist environment along the forecast track of the storm are expected to result in steady to rapid strengthening. Ida is now foreast to become a hurricane when it is near western Cuba and once it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico a period of rapid strengthening is likely to begin, with the NHC intensity forecast explicitly calling for rapid intensification to major hurricane strength between 24 and 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is on the higher side of the intensity guidance but not quite as high as the slightly more aggressive CTCI, HWRF, and HCCA models. In addition to the increase in strength, the dynamical model guidance indicates that Ida's wind field will grow larger as it moves over the Gulf of Mexico and this is reflected in the NHC wind radii forecast. In summary, there is a higher-than-normal confidence that a significant hurricane will impact a large portion of the northern Gulf coast by late this weekend and early next week. Ida is moving northwestward or 320/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from before. A mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to move westward and this should keep Ida on a general northwestward heading during the next 48-60 hours. This track will bring the storm across western Cuba later today, over the southeastern and central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday and Saturday night, to the coast of Louisiana by late Sunday. The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement with very little cross-track spread during the first 60 hours or so of the forecast period. After that time, Ida is forecast to reach the western portion of the ridge, which is expected to cause the storm to slow down and turn northward and then northeastward over the southeastern United States. The NHC track forecast is near or just east of the various consensus aids, in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean. Although the small spread in the guidance through landfall increases the overall confidence in the track forecast, users are reminded to not focus on the exact details of the forecast track as storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected later today and tonight in portions of western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Life-threatening heavy rains, flash flooding and mudslides are expected across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba, including the Isle of Youth. 2. The risk of life-threatening storm surge inundation is increasing along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Inundation of 7 to 11 feet above ground level is possible within the area from Morgan City, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Borgne. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Ida is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday, and the risk of hurricane-force winds continues to increase, especially along portions of the Louisiana coast, including metropolitan New Orleans. Potentially devastating wind damage could occur where the core of Ida moves onshore. 4. Ida is likely to produce heavy rainfall later Sunday into Monday across the central Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to coastal Mississippi and Alabama, as well as the Lower Mississippi Valley, resulting in considerable flash, urban, small stream, and riverine flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 20.7N 82.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 22.2N 83.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WESTERN CUBA 24H 28/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 29/0000Z 25.9N 87.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 27.6N 89.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 30.3N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 96H 31/1200Z 33.3N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 01/1200Z 35.2N 87.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Ida Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-08-27 16:48:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 990 WTNT24 KNHC 271448 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS REPLACE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH...AND THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON...LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE DRY TORTUGAS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IDA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 82.1W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 82.1W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 81.7W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.2N 83.7W...OVER WESTERN CUBA MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 24.0N 85.8W...OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 25.9N 87.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.6N 89.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.0N 90.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 30.3N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 33.3N 90.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 35.2N 87.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 82.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 8

2021-08-27 16:35:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 271435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 As was expected, vertical shear appears to be decreasing, with deep convection expanding over Nora's surface center just within the past few hours. Water vapor imagery also suggests an expansion of upper-level outflow to the north of the storm. Since Dvorak data-T numbers are 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, Nora's intensity is being held at that value for now. Nora has turned toward the northwest (310/10 kt) in response to a weakness in the subtropical ridge that has developed over the U.S. southern Rockies. Little change to this steering pattern is expected during the next several days, and Nora is forecast to move toward the northwest or north-northwest for the entire 5-day forecast period. Compared to the last few days, nearly all the track models now have Nora's center staying just offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, in about 36 hours. The GFS and HMON model fields still show a landfall in that area, but their interpolated trackers--which have been shifted to begin at our estimated initial position--also stay just offshore. After 36 hours, the track guidance has shifted slightly eastward, and the new NHC track forecast now keeps Nora's center over water up into the Gulf of California from days 2 through 5. That will be a small needle to thread, however, and any future shifts in the models could increase the risk of impacts to either the Baja California peninsula or the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico through the middle of next week. SHIPS model diagnostics indicate that the northeasterly deep-layer shear over Nora has decreased to about 15 kt, and this shear is expected to decrease further to below 10 kt in about 12 hours. Along with warm waters of about 29 degrees Celsius and significant upper-level divergence (at least for the next 36 hours), these conditions should foster strengthening, and Nora is still forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday. The part of the forecast after 48 hours remains uncertain depending on how much Nora interacts with land, but based on the new forecast that keeps the cyclone over water in the Gulf of California (where SSTs are even warmer -- around 31 degrees Celsius), Nora could maintain hurricane intensity through at least day 4. The NHC intensity forecast continues to hedge on the side of the ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM models, since most of the other models show Nora's center interacting with land to at least some degree. The new forecast has necessitated an extension of the Tropical Storm Warning northward to San Blas, Mexico, and the issuance of a new Tropical Storm Watch north of there to Mazatlan. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while passing nearby the coasts of the Mexican states of Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit, and hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of Nora and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, as well as Baja California Sur. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. 3. Nora is forecast to move over the Gulf of California as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to portions of the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora. Given the above-average uncertainty in the forecast, it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 15.4N 104.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 16.3N 105.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 17.9N 105.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.7N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 23.1N 108.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 24.2N 109.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 26.1N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 28.4N 111.7W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Advisory Number 8

2021-08-27 16:34:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 271434 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC FRI AUG 27 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TECPAN DE GALEANA TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.3W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 104.3W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.3N 105.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...180NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.9N 105.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.7N 107.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.1N 108.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.2N 109.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 26.1N 110.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 28.4N 111.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 104.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm Nora Forecast Discussion Number 7

2021-08-27 11:00:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270900 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Nora Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021 The convective structure of Nora this morning continues to look a bit disheveled, with the majority of the deeper convection still located to the south and west of the mean low-level circulation center due to 15-20 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear. More recently, however, there are a few deeper convective tops attempting to develop on the northeast side of the broad vortex. A helpful ASCAT-A pass at 0307 UTC revealed that the circulation remains quite elongated, with two distinct mesovorticies, one to the southwest embedded in the convection, and another to the northeast. The current center estimate roughly splits the difference between these two points. The peak wind retrieval from that scatterometer pass was also 43-kt with a few higher rain-contaminated values. Assuming a bit of instrument undersampling, the current intensity is set to 45-kt for this advisory. Nora motion continues to gradually bend rightward, with the latest motion estimate at 300/10 kt. As mentioned in the previous discussion, mid-level ridging to the north of Nora is gradually being eroded by a shortwave trough propagating westward across the Rocky Mountains. This pattern is expected to create a weakness in the ridge that should allow Nora to begin gaining more latitude later today. While the models are in decent agreement with this poleward turn, there still remains some spread on how sharp this turn will be, and whether or not the tropical cyclone will directly impact the southwestern coast of Mexico. The latest deterministic ECMWF and UKMET runs continue to forecast Nora to remain offshore of mainland Mexico, while the GFS and Canadian models explicitly show Nora making landfall in 36-48 hours. While the track guidance envelope has narrowed some, the multi-model consensus aids have changed very little this cycle. Therefore, the latest NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one, and lies close to the HCCA consensus aid and GFEX, which is a simple blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecast solutions. This forecast track still brings Nora close to Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California in around 72 hours, though uncertainty by that time frame remains high, related to the degree of land interaction Nora will encounter prior to that point. Nora continues to be impacted by northeasterly vertical wind shear, though this shear is still forecast to subside over the next 12-24 hours. As long as Nora stays far enough offshore, the reduction in shear in combination with warm 28-29 C sea-surface temperatures and ample deep-layer moisture favor strengthening. Therefore, the latest NHC intensity forecast still indicates intensification with Nora forecast to become a Hurricane on Saturday. This intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, especially after 36 hours, because a subset of the guidance aids (HWRF, HMON, GFS) bring Nora inland after this time, substantially disrupting the storm's circulation. However, since the latest NHC forecast track keeps Nora far enough offshore, I have elected to follow closer to the ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble mean intensity aids, which show continued intensification after 36 hours. After 72 hours, weakening is anticipated due to possible land interaction with the mountainous terrain of Baja California Sur. Needless to say, this intensity forecast hinges on the track of Nora remaining offshore of mainland Mexico, and this intensity forecast is also more uncertain than usual, especially after 36 hours. Key Messages: 1. Nora is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday while passing nearby the coast of southwestern Mexico, and a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning are in effect for portions of that coastline. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of this system and subsequent updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rain associated with Tropical Storm Nora is expected across coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. 3. Nora is forecast to be near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is still too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 14.6N 103.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 15.3N 104.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 16.6N 105.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 18.5N 106.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 20.6N 106.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 22.1N 107.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 23.2N 108.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR 96H 31/0600Z 24.9N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR 120H 01/0600Z 27.1N 111.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR BAJA CAL SUR $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven

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