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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 22

2021-08-21 10:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210853 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 An earlier GMI satellite microwave image continued to indicate that Henri's low-level center was still located near the northwestern edge of the convective canopy. However, more recent geostationary satellite imagery shows that the convection is beginning to wrap around the northeastern and eastern portions of the circulation suggesting that the anticipated decrease in shear is occuring, and that Henri may be on the verge of strengthening. The latest subjective satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remained unchanged so the initial intensity remains 60 kt, in agreement with those estimates and the earlier aircraft data. The next reconnaissance aircraft mission should be in the storm around 1200 UTC this morning. Henri is moving north-northeastward or 015/10 kt. A mid- to upper-level low and associated trough over the Appalachians and Ohio Valley should steer Henri north-northeastward at a faster forward speed today. As Henri moves around the eastern portion of the upper-low, the storm is forecast to turn north-northwestward tonight. This motion will bring the center of Henri near or over portions of Long Island and Southern New England on Sunday and into the northeastern United States Sunday night. After that time, the cyclone should turn east-northeastward as it becomes caught in the mid-latitude westerlies. The latest dynamical model envelope continues to narrow for the first 24 to 36 hours of the forecast period and only small adjustments were needed to that portion of the track. After that time, the guidance has trended to taking Henri farther inland over the Northeastern United States, and the NHC forecast as been modified accordingly. Decreasing shear, upper-level divergence associated with the trough to Henri's west, and warm SSTs should allow the cyclone to strengthen during the next 12-18 hours. Although not explicitly shown in the intensity forecast, Henri could still peak around 75 kt later today or this evening. After that time, cooler waters are likely to cause a gradual reduction in intensity, however, Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength at landfall. Once the center moves inland over the Northeast United States, a faster rate of filling is anticipated. The system is forecast to become post-tropical in about 60 hours, and it will likely dissipate around day 4, if not a little sooner. The updated intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the intensity guidance during the first 12-24 hours, and is close to the Decay-SHIPS model thereafter. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible beginning late tonight or Sunday in western portions of Long Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island and Connecticut, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are possible late tonight or Sunday across portions of Rhode Island. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York and northern New Jersey. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 33.1N 73.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 35.6N 72.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 38.8N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 40.9N 72.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/0600Z 42.1N 73.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 23/1800Z 42.8N 73.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 24/0600Z 43.3N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 25/0600Z 44.5N 62.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 22

2021-08-21 10:53:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 886 WTNT23 KNHC 210853 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WATCH EAST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MONTAUK POINT TO FLUSHING NEW YORK * FLUSHING NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MASTIC NEW YORK * NORTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * CAPE COD BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK POINT * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS * BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET * WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. * COASTAL NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MANASQUAN INLET...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 73.2W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 73.2W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 73.4W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.6N 72.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.8N 72.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.9N 72.7W...INLAND OVER LONG ISLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.1N 73.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 42.8N 73.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 43.3N 71.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 44.5N 62.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 73.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Hurricane Grace Forecast Advisory Number 32

2021-08-21 10:52:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 210852 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0900 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 97.8W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 105SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 97.8W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 97.2W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.2N 99.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 20.1N 101.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 97.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Grace Forecast Discussion Number 31

2021-08-21 05:00:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210300 TCDAT2 Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Hurricane Grace has rapidly intensified this evening. Deep cold convection has been wrapping around the center, with some evidence of mesovorticies rotating within the eyewall following the GOES-16 GLM lightning data. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters arrived in Grace around 0000 UTC and found that the storm had intensified into Category 2 hurricane with the pressure dropping down to 967 mb, which is a pronounced deepening rate of 2 mb per hour compared to the previous advisory. More recently, the aircraft was able to pass through the northeastern eyewall, and recently found flight level winds up to 115 kt with SFMR winds of 105 kt. These observations support Grace being upgraded to a major hurricane this advisory, with maximum sustained winds of 105 kt. Some additional strengthening is possible while Grace remains over the very warm waters in the Bay of Campeche, though the hurricane should be making landfall tonight within the next 3-6 hours just south of Tuxpan, Mexico. By tomorrow morning, the storm should be well inland, and rapid weakening will likely be underway over the very mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico. The latest NHC intensity forecast now had Grace dissipating over Mexico in about 36 hours. However, as discussed in previous advisories, while the low-level circulation is expected to dissipate, the mid-level vortex is forecast to survive the passage of Mexico, and this feature is likely to lead to the development of a new tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific basin later this weekend or early next week. Center fixes from the aircraft indicate that Grace has stayed on a mostly due westward heading, at 270/9 kt. This general motion, though with a bit more southward component should continue through landfall and dissipation. This southward deflection over often occurs with strong hurricanes in this region, due to the topographical effects of the wind field to the north ascending over the higher terrain. The official NHC track is very similar to the previous advisory, and remains near the middle of the guidance consensus. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along portions of the coast of eastern mainland Mexico beginning tonight and tomorrow morning within the Hurricane Warning area from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo. 2. A dangerous storm surge is likely near and to the north of the where the center of Grace crosses the coast of Mexico. 3. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to significant flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 20.7N 96.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 20.3N 97.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0000Z 20.0N 100.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Beven

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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 21

2021-08-21 05:00:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 210300 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Satellite imagery shows that Henri is becoming better organized this evening, with the low-level center becoming more embedded in the convective overcast and an increase in convective banding. There has also been an increase in the anticyclonic outflow. However, reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that this has not yet resulted in strengthening, as the maximum winds remain about 60 kt to the southeast of the elongated center and the central pressure is in the 994-996 mb range. Henri has turned northward, and the initial motion is now 010/8. A deep-layer mid-latitude trough over the Appalachians and the Ohio Valley will cut off into a closed low during the next 12-24 h, while a ridge builds northward to the east and northeast of Henri. This evolution should cause the storm to move north-northeastward for 12-24 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest from 24-48 h. This motion should bring the center of Henri over the mid-Atlantic states or southern New England between 36-48 h. After 48 h, the cyclone should get caught up in the southern edge of the westerlies and turn generally eastward across southern New England and the Gulf of Maine. There has been little change in the direction of the forecast guidance since the last advisory, but the guidance is faster on this cycle through 48 h. Thus, the new track forecast, which lies close to the consensus models, is faster than the previous forecast through the 48 h point. A combination of decreasing shear, improved organization, and upper-level divergence associated with the trough to the west should allow Henri to strengthen for the next 24 h or so, and the new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 75 kt. After 24 h, the center should move over cooler water, and weakening should start before landfall in the northeastern United States. However, the cyclone is still expected to be at or near hurricane intensity at landfall. After landfall, Henri should weaken quickly and become post-tropical by the 72 h time. Dissipation is forecast between 96-120 h. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late Saturday night or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible beginning late Saturday night or Sunday in western portions of Long Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late Saturday night or Sunday in portions of Long Island and Connecticut, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are possible late Saturday night or Sunday across portions of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 32.3N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 34.3N 72.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 37.7N 72.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 40.2N 72.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 41.4N 73.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 23/1200Z 42.2N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0000Z 42.7N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 25/0000Z 43.5N 67.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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