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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 28

2021-08-22 22:40:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 222039 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 72.4W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.6N 72.4W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.5N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.0N 73.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 42.6N 73.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 43.0N 70.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 43.6N 66.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.6N 72.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 27

2021-08-22 17:01:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 221501 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Henri's presentation in both satellite and radar imagery has degraded significantly since the previous advisory due to the cyclone having moved over much cooler water. An eyewall feature is no longer evident and clouds tops have warmed markedly in the inner-core region around the center. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, NOAA Doppler weather radars, and surface observations indicate that Henri's peak winds have decreased to 50 kt despite the central pressure remaining constant at about 987 mb. Henri is moving north-northwestward or 335/10 kt. The cyclone is forecast to gradually turn northwestward later this afternoon and possibly even move westward before stalling near the New York-Connecticut border later tonight owing to interaction with a mid- to upper-level low located over he DelMarVa region. The latter system is expected to be absorbed by Henri by early Monday morning before ejecting out slowly eastward to east-northeastward across southern New England by Monday afternoon and evening. Henri is then forecast to cross the southern Gulf of Maine and Nova Scotia as a remnant low on Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the west and south of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models. Little change in strength is expected until Henri makes landfall in the Rhode Island-eastern Connecticut area this afternoon. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast due to land interaction and entrainment of cooler air coming in off of the Atlantic Ocean. Henri should weaken to a tropical depression by early Monday, and become post-tropical by Monday afternoon or evening. Due to the degraded radar presentation of Henri, hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates (TCU) will be discontinued after the 1100 AM EDT advisory. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to continue today in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the tropical storm warning area into tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New England, eastern New York, New Jersey and northeast Pennsylvania. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 41.1N 71.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 42.4N 73.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1200Z 43.0N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0000Z 43.3N 71.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 43.7N 68.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 25/0000Z 44.3N 64.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 27

2021-08-22 16:50:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 221450 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 1500 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO WEST OF MASTIC BEACH NEW YORK AND FROM NORTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK TO MANASQUAN INLET NEW JERSEY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MONTAUK POINT TO FLUSHING NEW YORK * FLUSHING NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND * BLOCK ISLAND...NANTUCKET AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.1N 71.6W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 110SE 70SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.1N 71.6W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 71.3W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 42.4N 73.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 43.0N 72.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 43.3N 71.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 43.7N 68.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 44.3N 64.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.1N 71.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Henri Forecast Discussion Number 26

2021-08-22 11:06:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 220905 CCA TCDAT3 Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 26...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Henri's satellite presentation has remained largely unchanged overnight and early this morning. Deep convection remains over the center and NWS Doppler radar imagery has revealed a convection band that wraps around the circulation forming a loose banding-eye feature. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has been in the storm for much of the night has reported that the pressure is slightly lower than earlier, around 986 mb, but the flight-level and SFMR winds are not quite as high as before. The initial intensity is maintained at 65 kt for this advisory. The current reconnaissance mission will be in Henri for a few more hours and should provide additional information on the storm's intensity. Henri has been moving just west of due north or 350/15 kt. The storm is expected to move north-northwestward today around the northeastern portion of a cut-off low over the central Appalachians. Some deceleration is indicated by the model guidance, but this motion should bring the center near the eastern portion of Long Island and into southern New England later this morning or early this afternoon. There is still a little spread in the track guidance regarding the landfall point, but the updated NHC forecast lies very close to the previous advisory for the first 12 hours, and is between the multi-model consensus aids and the ECMWF and GFS which are slightly to the left. Regardless of the exact landfall location, storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend far from the center. After landfall, Henri should slow down and turn east-northeastward on Monday as it becomes embedded in the southern extent of the mid-latitude westerlies. The guidance envelope has shifted a little westward from 24 to 48 hours, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Henri has moved north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and will encounter cooler waters on its approach to New England. Although some slight weakening is possible, Henri is expected to at or near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of southern New England. Even if slight weakening does occur it will have little difference on the expected storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts. Rapid weakening should occur after landfall. Henri is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by early Monday, and become post-tropical shortly thereafter. With the center within radar range and fairly well trackable, hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued beginning at 600 AM EDT (1000 UTC) to provide updates on Henri's center location. These updates will continue as long as the center remains trackable in radar imagery. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin this morning in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin this morning in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions will begin in these areas within the next couple of hours. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New England, eastern New York and New Jersey. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 40.1N 71.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 41.5N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/0600Z 42.7N 72.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 23/1800Z 43.5N 72.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 24/0600Z 43.8N 70.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 24/1800Z 44.2N 67.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Henri Forecast Advisory Number 26

2021-08-22 10:52:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 220852 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 22 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MONTAUK POINT TO FLUSHING NEW YORK * FLUSHING NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MASTIC NEW YORK * NORTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * CAPE COD BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK POINT * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS * BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET * WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET * COASTAL NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MANASQUAN INLET...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 71.2W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 110SE 80SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 120SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 71.2W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 71.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 41.5N 71.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 42.7N 72.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 43.5N 72.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 43.8N 70.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 44.2N 67.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.1N 71.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 22/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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