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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Advisory Number 21
2021-08-21 04:59:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 210259 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING BETWEEN GREENWICH CT TO FLUSHING NY AND FLUSHING TO OYSTER BAY NY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND EAST TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET NEW YORK TO MANASQUAN INLET NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MONTAUK POINT TO FLUSHING NEW YORK * FLUSHING NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MASTIC NEW YORK * NORTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * CAPE COD BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK POINT * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET * WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND MARTHA'S VINEYARD. * COASTAL NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MANASQUAN INLET...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON SATURDAY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 73.5W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 73.5W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 73.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 34.3N 72.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.7N 72.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.2N 72.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 90SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.4N 73.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.2N 73.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 42.7N 72.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 43.5N 67.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 73.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane Grace Forecast Advisory Number 31
2021-08-21 04:56:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 210256 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 60SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 96.3W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.3N 97.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.0N 100.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 96.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
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Hurricane Grace Forecast Discussion Number 30
2021-08-20 22:45:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 202045 TCDAT2 Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021 The satellite presentation of Grace has greatly improved over the past several hours. Deep convection has become more concentrated over the center, and the central dense overcast now appears more symmetric. Dropsonde winds and peak 850-mb flight level wind measured by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters around midday were consistent with an intensity of around 75 kt. However, the surface pressure has been gradually falling throughout the day, and recent satellite data suggest the hurricane is becoming better organized. Therefore, the initial intensity is raised to 80 kt for this advisory, which is supported by the latest UW-CIMSS objective ADT estimate. Given the high oceanic heat content within the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, additional strengthening is expected through Grace's landfall tonight. The 10-15 kt of northerly vertical wind shear over Grace does not appear to be having much of a negative effect on the cyclone at this time. Thus, the official NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, and is closest to the statistical-dynamical models DSHP and LGEM. The current forecast shows Grace making landfall within the next 12-18 h. Once the center of Grace moves inland over the mountains of central Mexico, the cyclone should rapidly weaken and then dissipate by 48 h. However, its remnants appear likely to move into the eastern Pacific and lead to the development of a new tropical cyclone in that basin later this weekend or early next week. Earlier reconnaissance data indicate that Grace has slowed down a bit today, and its initial motion is estimated to be 265/9 kt. This general motion should continue through landfall as Grace is steered by a mid-level ridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico. The official NHC track forecast is slightly slower, but otherwise very similar to the previous one and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely along portions of the coast of eastern mainland Mexico beginning this evening within the Hurricane Warning area from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo. 2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, northern Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to significant flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 20.5N 95.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 20.4N 96.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 21/1800Z 19.9N 98.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/0600Z 19.5N 101.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Hurricane Grace Forecast Advisory Number 30
2021-08-20 22:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 202043 TCMAT2 HURRICANE GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC FRI AUG 20 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO BARRA DEL TORDO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 95.1W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 90SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 95.1W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 94.6W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.4N 96.6W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 19.9N 98.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.5N 101.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 95.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-08-20 22:42:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 202042 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Henri appears to be slowly gaining strength. Deep convection has been increasing during the past few hours and the upper-level outflow continues to become better established on the east side of the circulation. However, the low-level center is still located near the northwestern edge of the deep convection due to ongoing northerly wind shear. An ASCAT-B pass from a few hours ago showed peak winds of around 55 kt, with the strongest winds on the southeast side of the circulation. Based on this data, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Henri again this evening and the data the plane collects will be very helpful in estimating the storm's strength and structure. The tropical storm appears to be making the advertised turn to the right, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 335/6 kt. A trough over the central Appalachians is expected to cut off tonight, and the combination of that feature and a building ridge to the east/northeast of Henri should cause the storm to accelerate to the north on Saturday. The latest model runs have generally trended to the left again and are a bit faster, with most showing landfall in about 48 hours. Most of the models now show a slight left turn before landfall as Henri gets caught in the circulation of the aforementioned trough. The latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble members continue to span a region from near New York City to Cape Cod for the landfall point. Based on the latest consensus aids, the official track forecast has again been nudged to the west of the previous one and shows landfall occurring on Sunday. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject northeastward. The ongoing northerly shear is expected to decrease tonight, and the global models show a favorable upper-level wind pattern developing over the storm through the weekend. These more conducive atmospheric conditions combined with the warm Gulf Stream waters should allow Henri to strengthen to a hurricane tonight or early Saturday, with additional intensification expected into Saturday night. By early Sunday, however, Henri is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and that should end its opportunity for strengthening. Although steady to rapid weakening is forecast while Henri moves over cooler waters south of Long Island and New England, it will likely still be at or very near hurricane intensity when it reaches the coast. Post-tropical transition is forecast to occur by day 3 and the system should dissipate in 4 or 5 days. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible beginning Sunday in western portions of Long Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin Sunday in portions of Long Island and Connecticut, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are possible Sunday across portions of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 31.2N 73.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 32.8N 73.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 35.8N 72.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 38.9N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 40.8N 72.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 42.0N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1800Z 42.9N 72.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 24/1800Z 43.8N 68.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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