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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2021-08-25 22:50:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 252050 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 Scatterometer data from a few hours ago revealed that a small but sufficiently well-defined circulation has formed on the western end of a broader circulation which lies a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico. Although the system is still in its formative stages and banding features are not readily apparent, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have been a consensus T2.0/30 kt since this morning. The system is therefore now designated as a 30-kt tropical depression, although the scatterometer data suggested that its winds are already very near tropical storm force. The depression's surface center apparently formed a little south of the vorticity maximum we have been tracking over the past day or so. Therefore, the initial motion is very uncertain but is estimated to be westward, or 275/7 kt. The evolution of the steering pattern is fairly consistent among the models. A strong mid-tropospheric high over the U.S. Southern Plains is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days, causing the depression to turn from a westward motion now, to a west-northwest motion tonight, to a northwest and north-northwest motion by Friday and Saturday. On this track, most of the models bring the center of the system near but still offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. The GFS has been a notable exception, bringing the system inland over southwestern Mexico in about 3 days. However, that model shows a complex interaction with multiple low-level centers that consolidate farther east, and most of the GEFS ensemble members remain offshore with the other deterministic models. As a result, this first NHC official forecast also shows a track remaining offshore and is a little to the left of the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. Moderate easterly to northeasterly shear is likely to continue over the depression for the next day or so, which would temper any fast strengthening in the short term. Still, the system will be moving over warm waters of 28-29 degrees Celsius over the next few days, and lower shear in 2-3 days should allow it to strengthen to a hurricane by the weekend as it passes near the southwestern coast of Mexico and approaches the southern part of the Baja California peninsula. The intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement during the first 2 days, but there is much more spread after that time, likely related to the degree of land interaction. The NHC intensity forecast is near the consensus aids during the first 3 days and then a little bit above them on days 4 and 5, lying between the HWRF and HMON models at those forecast times. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm tonight and be near hurricane intensity by Saturday. While the core of the storm is currently expected to remain offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds and heavy rainfall, possibly resulting in flash floods and mudslides, could affect portions of that area over the next several days. 2. The system is expected to pass near the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane Sunday and Monday, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area early next week. Given the uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts, but interests in this area should monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 11.7N 99.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 12.0N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 12.8N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 13.6N 103.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 14.7N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 16.2N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 18.0N 106.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 21.1N 109.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 22.7N 112.1W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

2021-08-25 22:49:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 25 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 252049 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 2100 UTC WED AUG 25 2021 INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 99.4W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 99.4W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 99.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.0N 100.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.8N 102.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.6N 103.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.7N 105.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.2N 106.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 106.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 21.1N 109.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 22.7N 112.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 99.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty Forecast Discussion Number 7

2021-08-24 22:41:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 738 WTPZ43 KNHC 242041 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 There has been no significant deep convection within 100 nmi of Marty's center for more than 12 hours. As a result, Marty has degenerated into a remnant low. The initial intensity has been maintained at 30 kt based on ASCAT-B/-A passes between 1700-1800 UTC that still showed a significant fetch of 25-kt winds over much of the northern quadrant, including a few embedded 28-kt vectors. Since Marty is forecast to remain over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures and within a large field of cold-air stratocumulus clouds, gradual spin down of the vortex and weakening of the cyclone's peak winds are expected until dissipation occurs in about 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA intensity consensus models. The initial motion estimate remains westward, or 270/10 kt. For the next 36 hours or so, the remnant low is forecast to move westward along the southern periphery of a sprawling deep-layer ridge located northwest through northeast of Marty. Thereafter, a motion toward the west-southwest is expected until the cyclone dissipates. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus models, which have shifted a little to the south on this forecast cycle. This is the last advisory being issued on Marty. For additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 20.5N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 25/0600Z 20.5N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1800Z 20.5N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0600Z 20.4N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 20.2N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0600Z 19.8N 129.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marty Forecast Advisory Number 7

2021-08-24 22:40:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 242040 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.2W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.2W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 118.6W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.5N 120.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 20.5N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.4N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.2N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.8N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 119.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON MARTY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression Marty Forecast Discussion Number 6

2021-08-24 16:33:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 241433 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Marty Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 There has been no significant deep convection within 100 nmi of Marty's center since about 0600 UTC. The cyclone's cloud pattern now consists of some mid-level clouds and mostly low-level cold-air stratocumulus clouds. The current intensity of 30 kt is based on a unanimous Dvorak satellite classification of T1.5/2.5 (25 kt/35 kt) from TAFB and SAB, which has resulted in Marty being downgraded to a tropical depression. Due to the cyclone's future track remaining over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures, coupled with additional entrainment of stable low clouds, Marty is now forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low later today. The new NHC intensity forecast closely follows the trends of the intensity consensus models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA. The initial motion remains westward, or 270/10 kt. The strong deep-layer ridge to the north of the weakening shallow cyclone is expected to keep Marty on a generally westward track over the next 36 hours or so, followed by a west-southwestward motion thereafter until the cyclone dissipates. The new official forecast track lies near the extreme southern edge of the model guidance envelope, owing to the models' slight poleward bias noted over the past 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 20.6N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 20.6N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 25/1200Z 20.6N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/0000Z 20.6N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 20.5N 126.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0000Z 20.2N 128.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z 19.6N 130.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart

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