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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Discussion Number 33

2021-08-21 16:54:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 211454 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 Grace has continued to move over east-central Mexico since making landfall around 0600 UTC. Visible satellite images show that the system's organization is degrading, but there is still some deep convection near the center with a few showers and thunderstorms near the coast. Assuming a slightly faster rate of weakening than given by the Decay-SHIPS output to account for the mountainous terrain, the advisory intensity is set to 60 kt. Additional rapid weakening should occur while the cyclone moves over the mountains of central and west-central Mexico today and tonight. Grace is likely to weaken below tropical storm strength tonight and dissipate tomorrow morning. After making a southwestward turn just after landfall, the current motion is just a little south of west, or 250/11 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Grace should cause a generally westward motion until dissipation on Sunday. The mid-level remnants of Grace are expected to continue westward after the surface center dissipates, and to emerge into the eastern Pacific Ocean by late Sunday. There is a good chance that this will lead to the formation of a new tropical cyclone over that basin by early next week. Key Messages: 1. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to significant flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 19.7N 98.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 19.4N 100.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/1200Z 19.0N 102.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm Grace Forecast Advisory Number 33

2021-08-21 16:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 211453 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO IS REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM PUERTO VERACRUZ TO BARRA DEL TORDO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 98.9W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......130NE 90SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 98.9W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 98.3W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.4N 100.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.0N 102.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 98.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane Henri Forecast Discussion Number 23

2021-08-21 16:42:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 211442 TCDAT3 Hurricane Henri Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 The Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Henri this morning and continue to provide very valuable data. The Air Force aircraft measured a peak flight-level wind of 82 kt at 700 mb, which easily supports hurricane strength, but the initial intensity is set at 65 kt as a blend of these data and somewhat lower SFMR winds. In addition, aircraft data indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 991 mb. The NOAA tail Doppler radar data indicate that the storm is becoming more vertically aligned and that a more symmetric eyewall appears to be forming. In addition, dropsonde data from the NOAA Gulfstream IV aircraft flying around Henri indicate that the 34- and 50-kt wind radii are a little larger than previously estimated in the southeastern quadrant. NOAA buoy 41001 located in the northeastern quadrant of the hurricane has recently reported 18 ft. seas. Henri is moving north-northeastward, or 020 degrees, at 12 kt. The steering pattern appears fairly well established now with a cut off low located over the central Appalachians and a ridge building to the east and northeast of Henri. This pattern should cause the storm to accelerate to the north or north-northeast today followed by a slight bend to the left on Sunday. The latest run of the GFS has shifted to the east, but overall the models are focused in on landfall being between central Long Island and Rhode Island on Sunday. However, users are reminded to not focus on the center itself, as impacts will extend well away from the center, especially to the east. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one and very near the best-performing models, the consensus aids. The environment looks favorable for Henri to continue to gain strength through tonight with low shear, upper-level divergence associated with the upper-level trough, and warm SSTs. In fact, the GFS and HWRF models show the minimum pressure dropping by 15 mb or more during that time period. By early Sunday, Henri is predicted to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and that should cause some weakening, but Henri is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength at landfall. Once the center moves inland over the northeast United States, rapid weakening is expected. Henri is forecast to become post-tropical in 48-60 hours and dissipate in 3 to 4 days. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible beginning late tonight or Sunday in western portions of Long Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin late tonight or Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions will begin in these areas tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York and northern New Jersey. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 34.4N 72.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 36.9N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 39.7N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 41.3N 72.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1200Z 42.4N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/0000Z 43.1N 71.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 24/1200Z 43.8N 69.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Hurricane Henri Forecast Advisory Number 23

2021-08-21 16:40:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 211440 TCMAT3 HURRICANE HENRI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NEW ENGLAND HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO CHATHAM...INCLUDING NANTUCKET. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MASTIC BEACH TO MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM MONTAUK POINT TO FLUSHING NEW YORK * FLUSHING NEW YORK TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS * NANTUCKET...MARTHA'S VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MASTIC NEW YORK * NORTH OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS * CAPE COD BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT * NORTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO MONTAUK POINT * NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT TO WEST OF WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS * BLOCK ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR TO WEST OF NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT * SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND FROM WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET TO EAST ROCKAWAY INLET * WESTPORT MASSACHUSETTS TO CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHA'S VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET * COASTAL NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY INLET TO MANASQUAN INLET...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HENRI. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 72.5W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 90SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 72.5W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 72.7W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 36.9N 71.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.7N 71.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 41.3N 72.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 120SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 42.4N 72.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 43.1N 71.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 43.8N 69.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 72.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 21/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Hurricane Grace Forecast Discussion Number 32

2021-08-21 10:58:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 210858 TCDAT2 Hurricane Grace Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 AM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 Hurricane Grace made landfall around 0600 UTC this morning near Tecolutla, Mexico with estimated maximum sustained winds of 110 kt. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated the hurricane earlier tonight and found winds supporting an intensity of 105 kt. After the aircraft left the cyclone, the satellite appearance continued to improve with the eye clearing and becoming better-defined. Therefore, it is assumed that some additional strengthening occurred before landfall. Since that time, the inner-core of Grace has moved inland over eastern Mexico and recent radar and satellite images show a pronounced degradation of the eye and eyewall. Based on this trend, the initial advisory intensity has been lowered to 95 kt. Grace is moving a little south of west, or 260/12 kt. A westward motion is forecast to continue through tonight until the cyclone dissipates. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one and is in line with the track consensus guidance. The hurricane's forecast motion will take it over the mountainous terrain of interior Mexico today into tonight. Therefore, rapid weakening is expected and the latest NHC intensity forecast for Grace is near the Decay SHIPS guidance. By tonight, the low-level circulation is expected to dissipate over the higher terrain. As mentioned in previous advisories, the mid-level vortex of Grace is forecast to survive the westward passage over Mexico and reach the eastern Pacific late this weekend where a new tropical cyclone is expected to form. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are likely to continue along portions of the coast of eastern mainland Mexico for the next few hours within the Hurricane Warning area from Puerto Veracruz northward to Cabo Rojo. 2. Through the weekend, heavy rainfall across Veracruz, Puebla, Tlaxcala, Hidalgo, Queretaro, and eastern San Luis Potosi will lead to significant flash and urban flooding, along with the likelihood of mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 20.5N 97.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 20.2N 99.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 22/0600Z 20.1N 101.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto

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