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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 18

2020-10-10 04:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 100237 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Small, sporadic bursts of deep convection continue to pulse near the center of Norbert, mainly in the western semicircle due to some easterly vertical wind shear. Earlier satellite-derived wind data suggested that Norbert's low-level circulation is becoming elongated, and its structure will be reassessed overnight when new scatterometer data becomes available. The initial intensity remains 25 kt with this advisory. The global models suggest Norbert will open up into a trough and merge with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) within the next 48-72 h. However, it could degenerate into a remnant low even sooner if convection wanes. The official forecast hangs on to pesky Norbert for a couple more days before showing dissipation by 60 h. Norbert is moving northwestward at 4 kt. A weak mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone will continue steering Norbert slowly to the northwest for the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains near the track model consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 14.0N 106.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 14.4N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 14.9N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 15.1N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 15.3N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 22

2020-10-10 04:36:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 100236 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SABINE PASS...TX TO CAMERON...LOUISIANA INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMERON TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...LOUISIANA INCLUDING VERMILION BAY AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 92.6W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 240SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 92.6W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 92.9W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.7N 89.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.1N 87.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.5N 81.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 92.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 18

2020-10-10 04:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 100234 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 106.8W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 106.8W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 106.6W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.4N 107.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.9N 107.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.1N 107.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.3N 107.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 106.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 21

2020-10-09 22:56:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 092056 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that Delta has weakened some more since the last advisory. The eye structure on the radar has become less organized, with about 50 percent of the eyewall remaining in the northern semicircle. The aircraft reported maximum 700-mb flight-level winds have decreased to the 100-105 kt range, along with maximum SFMR surface wind estimates in the 80-85 kt range. In addition, the central pressure has risen to near 966 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 90 kt. The initial motion is now north-northeastward or 015/12 kt, with the hurricane moving between a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough over the U.S. Southern Plains. This motion should continue through the next 24 h or so, followed by a turn toward the northeast as Delta or its remnants move along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. While the track guidance remains tightly clustered, the guidance is a little faster than the previous run. So, the new track forecast is similar in direction, but slightly faster than the previous one. The forecast track has the center of Delta making landfall in southwestern Louisiana in the next few hours and then moving across central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning. After that, the system should move across northern Mississippi into the Tennessee Valley before it dissipates. Increasing vertical shear and decreasing oceanic heat content along the forecast track could cause a little more weakening in the last few hours before landfall. However, there will still be significant impacts from winds and storm surge (see Key Messages below). After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, with Delta expected to weaken to a tropical storm tonight and to a tropical depression by Saturday afternoon. As in the last advisory, the cyclone is forecast to dissipate between 60-72 h based on the consensus of the global models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring and will continue near and east of where Delta makes landfall this evening, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to the Mouth of the Pearl River, Louisiana. The highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected this afternoon and evening within portions of the Hurricane Warning area, especially along the coast of southwest Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds will also spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of Deltas center this evening and tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana today and Saturday. Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 29.3N 93.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 31.1N 92.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1800Z 33.1N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0600Z 34.4N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1800Z 35.9N 87.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0600Z 37.6N 84.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 21

2020-10-09 22:52:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 092052 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SARGENT TEXAS * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 93.2W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 240SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 93.2W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 93.6W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.1N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 130SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.1N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.4N 89.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 35.9N 87.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 37.6N 84.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 93.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number delta advisory forecast

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