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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-10-09 04:38:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 090238 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 106.0W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 106.0W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.1N 106.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.5N 106.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.2N 107.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.6N 107.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.8N 107.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.0N 107.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 15.0N 109.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 106.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-10-09 04:37:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 090237 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Reports from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Delta indicate that the hurricane strengthened a little more this evening. Peak flight-level winds were 120 kt, and the highest SFMR-observed surface winds were 98 kt. Using a blend of adjusted flight-level and surface wind observations, the current intensity estimate is set at 105 kt. The eye became obscured on satellite images a couple of hours ago, but recently it has become apparent again. Delta could intensify a little more within the next 6 hours or so. Thereafter, sharply decreasing oceanic heat content, significantly increasing west-southwesterly shear, and drier mid-level air should cause weakening. The official intensity forecast through landfall is above most of the model guidance. However, even 24-hour tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are still subject to an uncertainty of 1 Saffir-Simpson category, so one should not focus on the exact official landfall intensity forecast. Moreover, even if Delta weakens some, it will still have serious storm surge impacts due to its large size. Aircraft and satellite center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning toward the right. The motion is now north-northwestward, or 340/10 kt. Delta should turn northward on Friday as it moves on the western side of a mid-tropospheric high pressure area. Later on Friday, a 500-mb shortwave trough over the southern United States is likely to cause the tropical cyclone to turn north-northeastward and cross the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Delta should then move northeastward on the eastern side of the trough over the southeastern United States for the next day or two before dissipating near Kentucky. The official track forecast is very close to the previous NHC track, and in very good agreement with the various consensus track predictions. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where Delta makes landfall Friday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. Residents in the warning area should promptly follow advice given by local officials. The storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast decrease in intensity before landfall since Delta is a relatively large hurricane. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Friday afternoon and evening somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island, Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will also spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of Deltas center Friday evening and Friday night. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana Friday and Saturday. Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 25.7N 93.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 27.4N 93.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 29.8N 93.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/1200Z 32.0N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/0000Z 33.5N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 11/1200Z 34.9N 88.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Berg
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-10-09 04:35:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 090235 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SARGENT TEXAS * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 93.6W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 93.6W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 93.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 27.4N 93.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.8N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 140SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.0N 91.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.5N 90.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.9N 88.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 93.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-10-08 23:00:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 082100 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Delta is strengthening. In satellite imagery, an eye is now seen in the cold cloud tops of the central dense overcast. On the aircraft side, just received reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included 700-mb flight-level winds of 119 kt, SFMR winds estimates near 90 kt, and a central pressure of 959 mb inside a 30 n mi wide eye. A blend of the flight-level and SFMR wind estimates give an initial intensity of 100 kt, and Delta is again a major hurricane. The initial motion is now northwestward or 320/10 kt. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy and little change to the track forecast from the previous advisory. During the next 12-24 h, Delta should turn to the north between a mid- to upper-level ridge over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level level trough over the U.S. Southern Plains. This should be followed by a north-northeastward motion that is expected to bring the center near or over the northern Gulf coast, most likely in southwestern Louisiana, in about 30 h. After landfall, the cyclone should move northeastward through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies until it dissipates. The track guidance remains very tightly clustered in terms of direction, and the new forecast track is near the various consensus models. Shear, sea surface temperature, and moisture conditions appear favorable for strengthening during the next 12 h or so, and based on this additional intensification is expected tonight. A short period of rapid intensification remains possible given current trends, although the various rapid intensification indices are not enthusiastic about the possibilities of this, After 12 h, the global models again forecast strong southwesterly shear developing over the hurricane before landfall, and based on this some weakening is forecast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The system is expected to weaken to a depression no later than 60 h and degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h, with dissipation following shortly thereafter. The intensity forecast lies at or above the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Recent scatterometer data indicates that Delta is growing in size as it approaches the Louisiana coast. The NHC wind radii forecast again follows a combination of the data and the forecasts from global and hurricane regional models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where Delta makes landfall Friday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. Residents in the warning area should promptly follow advice given by local officials. The storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast decrease in intensity before landfall since Delta is expected to grow in size. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Friday afternoon and evening somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island, Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will also spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of Deltas center Friday evening and Friday night. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana Friday and Saturday. Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 24.8N 93.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 26.3N 93.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 28.6N 93.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 31.0N 92.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/1800Z 32.9N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 11/0600Z 34.3N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/1800Z 35.8N 87.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-10-08 22:54:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 082054 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 2100 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST WEST OF SAN LUIS PASS TO SARGENT. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SARGENT TEXAS * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 93.4W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 93.4W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 93.2W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.3N 93.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 28.6N 93.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.0N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 140SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 32.9N 91.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.3N 89.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 35.8N 87.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 93.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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