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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-10-08 10:31:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 080830 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO OCEAN SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND...TX TO SABINE PASS * EAST OF OCEAN SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS...TEXAS TO SABINE PASS * EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 91.8W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 91.8W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 91.4W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.6N 93.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.4N 93.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 28.8N 93.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.3N 92.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 110SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.3N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.6N 89.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 91.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-10-08 04:49:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 080249 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is gradually strengthening while it moves over the open waters of the south-central Gulf of Mexico. Based on a blend of adjusted flight-level and SFMR wind measurements from the plane, the current intensity is set at 80 kt. The cloud pattern of the hurricane continues to become better organized on satellite images, with a growing Central Dense Overcast, and convective banding features becoming better defined, particularly over the northern semicircle of the circulation. Additional intensification is likely while Delta moves through a favorable environment during the next day or so, and the official forecast is fairly close to the corrected consensus guidance, HCCA. When the system moves into the northern Gulf, a decrease in oceanic heat content, drier mid-tropospheric air, and increased vertical shear should cause at least slow weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is above the numerical guidance in 36-48 hours. It should be noted that 1-2 day tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are subject to errors of around 1 Saffir-Simpson category. The global models show a further increase in the size of the hurricane while it moves into the northern Gulf. The official wind radii forecasts are based on a consensus of these model predictions. The latest center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters show a west-northwestward motion, at about 300/15 kt. Delta should turn toward the north-northwest and north over the next 36 hours or so while moving around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure system centered over Florida. When the hurricane moves into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, Delta should turn toward the north-northeast on the southeastern side of a mid-tropospheric shortwave over the southern United States. The official track forecast is close to both the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus predictions, TVCA and HCCA, respectively. These objective aids are in close agreement with one another. Based on the official forecast, it is time to issue storm surge and hurricane warnings for a portion of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Key Messages: 1. Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast, where life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are likely beginning Friday, particularly for portions of the Louisiana coast. Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings are in effect, and residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials and rush preparedness actions to completion. 2. Flash, urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely Friday and Saturday from portions of the central Gulf Coast into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley. As Delta moves farther inland, additional heavy rainfall is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 22.5N 90.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 23.7N 92.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 25.4N 93.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 27.5N 93.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 30.0N 92.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 32.4N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/0000Z 34.2N 89.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z 37.5N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-10-08 04:46:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 080245 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SABINE PASS TO OCEAN SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM EAST OF SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM SAN LUIS PASS...TEXAS TO SABINE PASS...AND EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM RIO LAGARTOS TO DZILAM...MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO OCEAN SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE... AND MOBILE BAY A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND...TX TO SABINE PASS * EAST OF OCEAN SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS...TEXAS TO SABINE PASS * EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 90.9W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 90.9W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 90.2W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.7N 92.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.4N 93.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 27.5N 93.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 92.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.4N 91.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.2N 89.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 37.5N 85.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 90.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-10-08 04:40:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080240 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Tropical Depression Norbert is still struggling to maintain any deep convection near its center. Satellite imagery indicates the low-level center remains exposed, and a small convective burst noted in recent infrared imagery is already collapsing. The initial intensity is perhaps generously held at 30 kt based on a blend of recent objective satellite estimates and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Overnight scatterometer data should help further assess whether additional weakening has occurred. Norbert continues to meander within a weak steering pattern, and its center has drifted southeast of the previous advisory position. Little movement is expected during the next 12 h, but Norbert should begin slowly moving west-southwestward from 12-36 h. Then, the cyclone should move west-northwestward or northwestward at around 5 kt for the remainder of the forecast period as a mid-level ridge builds to the north and northeast of Norbert. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast with this advisory. Although current satellite trends do not bode well for Norbert, the system remains embedded in a favorable environment of warm water and light vertical wind shear. The latest SHIPS guidance suggests the deep-layer shear will increase slightly during the next 24 h, which combined with any more dry air intrusions could cause Norbert to degenerate into a remnant low. On the other hand, increasing mid-level moisture and weaker shear beyond this time period could allow for a convective burst capable of getting Norbert back to minimal tropical storm strength. Given the mixed signals for small intensity fluctuations in either direction, the official intensity forecast holds Norbert's intensity steady for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 13.2N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 13.2N 106.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 13.1N 107.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 13.0N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 13.2N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 13.9N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 14.9N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 17.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-10-08 04:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 080236 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.8W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 170 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.8W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 106.9W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.2N 106.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.1N 107.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.0N 107.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.2N 108.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 13.9N 109.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.9N 109.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 17.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 106.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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