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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 13

2020-10-08 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 082033 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Norbert has a ragged and disorganized appearance, with asymmetrical convection bursting intermittently around the center. Satellite imagery suggests that the system is now experiencing some southeasterly shear. A recent ASCAT overpass sampled peak winds of 24 kt, so the advisory intensity will remain 25 kt. The current environment surrounding Norbert is not forecast to change much over the next few days. Therefore, only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected to occur during that time. By 72 h, model guidance is indicating that the cyclone should encounter a more stable atmosphere, which would limit convection and cause Norbert to weaken. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low devoid of deep convection by day 4, but it is possible that the deep convection could dissipate long enough for Norbert to be declared a remnant low before that time. Another plausible scenario is that Norbert's low level circulation dissipates and opens up into a surface trough later in the forecast period. The only change to the latest NHC forecast is that no further strengthening is indicated, which is agreement with every available intensity model except the SHIPS guidance. Norbert has barely budged since early this morning due to a lack of steering currents. A weak mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the northeast of the cyclone Friday through Saturday, which should cause Norbert to eventually move west-northwest to northwest. By Sunday, however, a mid-upper level low digging across northern Mexico should weaken the ridge, and the model guidance has trended toward Norbert once again meandering for a couple of days. By day 5, low-level ridging building to the northwest of Norbert should cause the shallow system to begin a westward motion. Due to the lack of run-to-run model consistency in the 3-5 day period, that portion of the track forecast is of low confidence. The NHC forecast track was changed little through 48 h, then is slower at 60-96 h to reflect the second collapse of the steering currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 13.1N 106.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 13.0N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 13.3N 106.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 13.9N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 14.5N 107.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 14.8N 107.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 15.0N 107.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z 15.1N 109.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 13

2020-10-08 22:32:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 082032 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 106.1W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 106.1W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 106.1W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.0N 106.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.3N 106.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.9N 107.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.5N 107.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.8N 107.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 107.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 15.1N 109.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 106.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 16

2020-10-08 16:54:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 081454 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Satellite imagery shows that Delta is better organized this morning, with the center well embedded in a cold central dense overcast and a hint of a eye developing in the overcast. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 968 mb inside a 35 n mi wide eye, along with flight-level and SFMR winds that support an initial intensity of 90 kt. The initial motion remains northwestward or 305/12 kt. The track forecast is reasonably straightforward. During the next 12-24 h, Delta should turn to the north between a mid- to upper-level ridge over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level level trough over the U.S. Southern Plains. This should be followed by a north-northeastward motion that is expected to bring the center near or over the northern Gulf coast, most likely in southwestern Louisiana, in about 36 h. After landfall, the cyclone should move northeastward through the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies until it dissipates. The track guidance is very tightly clustered in terms of direction, and the new forecast track has only minor tweaks from the previous one. Shear, sea surface temperature, and moisture conditions appear favorable for strengthening during the next 12-24 h or so, and based on this Delta is expected to regain major hurricane strength. Rapid intensification cannot be ruled out, although the various rapid intensification indices do not suggest a high chance, and the first 24 h of the forecast is already above the intensity guidance. The global models forecast strong southwesterly shear developing over the hurricane during the last 12 h before landfall, and based on this some weakening is forecast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, with Delta forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h and dissipate shortly after that. It should be noted that the NHC 1-2 day intensity forecasts are subject to errors of around 1 Saffir-Simpson category. Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the Louisiana coast. The NHC wind radii forecast again follows a consensus of the global and hurricane regional models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where Delta makes landfall on Friday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Port Fourchon, Louisiana. Residents in the warning area should promptly follow advice given by local officials. The storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast decrease in intensity before landfall since Delta is expected to grow in size. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Friday afternoon and evening somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island, Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds will also spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of Deltas center Friday evening and Friday night. 3. Significant flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding are likely in parts of Louisiana Friday and Saturday, with additional flooding in portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 24.0N 92.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 25.4N 93.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 27.5N 93.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 29.8N 93.1W 90 KT 105 MPH...ON THE COAST 48H 10/1200Z 32.4N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 11/0000Z 34.0N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/1200Z 35.6N 87.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 16

2020-10-08 16:53:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 081453 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC THU OCT 08 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM HIGH ISLAND TO SABINE PASS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM HIGH ISLAND TO SABINE PASS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER... INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 92.7W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB EYE DIAMETER 35 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 90SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 92.7W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.4N 93.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 27.5N 93.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.8N 93.1W...ON THE COAST MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.4N 91.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.0N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.6N 87.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 92.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 12

2020-10-08 16:43:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 081443 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020 Intermittent bursts of deep convection are maintaining the circulation of Norbert. First-light visible satellite imagery shows the latest burst over the northeastern potion of the cyclone with a partially exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is being held at 25 kt, and is supported by the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well as data from an earlier ASCAT overpass. The environment surrounding Norbert is not forecast to change much over the next few days, with perhaps some slight increase in the atmospheric moisture in about 24 h. Therefore, only minor fluctuations in intensity are expected to occur during that time. By 72 h, model guidance is indicating that the cyclone should encounter a more stable atmosphere, which should limit convection and cause Norbert to weaken. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low devoid of deep convection by day 4, but it is possible that the deep convection could dissipate long enough for Norbert to be declared a remnant low before that time. Norbert has been nearly stationary since the previous advisory, and very little motion is expected today due to a lack of steering currents. A mid-level ridge is forecast to slowly build to the northeast of the cyclone Friday through the weekend, which should cause Norbert to eventually move west-northwest to northwest. By late in the forecast period, the forecast track becomes quite uncertain, as there are now indications that whatever is left of Norbert may interact with a disturbance to its west. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one through 72 h, but is left of that track beyond 72 h due to a shift in the consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 13.2N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 13.0N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 13.0N 106.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 13.4N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 14.1N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 14.9N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 15.5N 108.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 15.8N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z 15.9N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

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