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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 12
2020-10-07 16:49:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 071449 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE AND MOBILE BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF GRAND ISLE, LOUISIANA TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR CUBA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE AND MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO * COZUMEL A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO * DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAN LUIS PASS TO WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS * EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI... INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE, IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 88.0W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 88.0W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 87.4W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.8N 90.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.3N 92.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.0N 93.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.1N 93.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.8N 92.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.2N 90.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 36.5N 86.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 39.5N 81.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 88.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-10-07 16:47:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 323 WTPZ44 KNHC 071447 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Norbert has recovered somewhat from the dry air intrusion that occurred last night. A new burst of deep convection developed near the center early this morning, but the associated cloud tops are beginning to warm and the convection is becoming displaced over the northeastern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt, and is based off the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. The storm is struggling to stay organized despite being over warm waters and in an environment of relatively low shear. By Thursday, the SHIPS guidance suggests that the shear will increase to around 10-15 kt. This shear, along with occasional dry air intrusions similar to one experienced last night, could gradually weaken the system. On the other hand, the warm waters could counteract the moderately negative environmental factors. The latest NHC forecast still favors the latter scenario, and shows Norbert remaining a 35-kt tropical storm throughout the forecast period. This intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is a compromise between the SHIPS guidance and the model consensus. The initial motion is stationary, although the exact center location has been difficult to pinpoint this morning. The steering flow is forecast to remain very weak over the next couple of days, and most of the models show little movement through tonight followed by a slow westward drift Wednesday through Thursday. By late this week, a mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the north to northeast of the cyclone, which should force Norbert on a west-northwestward track. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one through 72 h, but was adjusted a little north after that time due to a northward shift in the guidance. However, the new track forecast remains south of the consensus aids late in the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 14.2N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 14.1N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 14.0N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 13.9N 107.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 13.8N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 14.1N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 14.9N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 17.5N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-10-07 16:46:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 071446 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 107.1W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 107.1W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.1N 107.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 10SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.0N 107.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.9N 107.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.8N 107.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.1N 108.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.9N 109.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 17.5N 112.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-10-07 10:59:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 070859 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Satellite images show very deep convection associated with Delta, with extremely cold cloud-top temperatures to -97C noted southwest of the center overnight. However, this structure has not resulted in a stronger cyclone, and the full NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission actually indicated that Delta has significantly weakened since earlier today. The maximum flight-level winds were 98 kt, with SFMR values near 90 kt. Early in the mission, the flight director indicated that the eyewall had dissipated, but on the last fix, she noted that the eyewall had re-formed. Recent Cuban radar data also indicate that at least a partial eyewall is present, so the initial wind speed is generously kept at 100 kt. Delta should begin to re-intensify late today as it moves into an area of fairly warm and deep waters, with fairly light shear. The regional hurricane models all show Delta attaining category 4 status in 36-48 hours, and so does the NHC forecast. As Delta approaches the Louisiana coast, lower oceanic heat content and an increase in shear is likely to cause some weakening before landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, and leans on the stronger regional hurricane models. I should also note that all of the guidance show Delta becoming considerably larger than it is now by the time it reaches the northern Gulf coast, so even if weakening occurs there, the hurricane will likely bring a sizable area of hazardous conditions to the coast. Fixes from the aircraft and Cuban radar data indicate the storm is moving faster to the northwest or 305/15 kt. Delta should make landfall during the next few hours between Cozumel and Cancun, and move quickly across northeastern Yucatan before emerging in the southern Gulf of Mexico early this afternoon. The hurricane is then expected to move to the northwest or west-northwest around the southwestern and western portion of the subtropical ridge for about the next 36 hours. Thereafter, Delta will likely turn northward by early Friday between the ridge and a mid-level trough over Texas. While there is broad agreement on the synoptic pattern, subtle differences in the subtropical ridge and the depth of the cyclone are causing some challenges. The ECMWF and its ensembles, for instance, are showing a stronger ridge and a weaker storm, which results in a slower track toward southwestern Louisiana. The GFS and UKMET, on the other hand, are showing a deeper cyclone, which would feel stronger upper-level winds, and move Delta faster to the coast. Given the expectation of a powerful cyclone at landfall, the NHC forecast is shaded toward the latter two models, which results in a slightly faster and westward-shifted forecast from before, not too different from the model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few hours. Now is the time to be in your storm shelter. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through early Thursday. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. Flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding is likely Friday through Saturday across portions of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. The heavy rainfall will spread northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and interior southeastern United States this weekend into early next week. 3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 20.6N 86.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 21.9N 88.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 23.3N 90.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 24.9N 92.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 26.7N 92.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 29.2N 92.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 32.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/0600Z 35.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0600Z 38.5N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-10-07 10:56:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 070856 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO * DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DELTA. HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 86.4W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 120SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 86.4W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 85.7W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.9N 88.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.3N 90.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.9N 92.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.7N 92.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.2N 92.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.0N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 35.5N 87.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 38.5N 82.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 86.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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