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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-10-09 22:34:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 157 WTPZ44 KNHC 092034 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 PM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Deep convection has persisted near the center of Norbert for the past several hours. However, a recent ASCAT overpass as well as visible satellite imagery revealed that the low-level circulation is becoming elongated. In addition, the wind field surrounding the depression suggests that is remains very near, if not embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The initial intensity of 25 kt is based off data from the ASCAT overpass. The GFS and ECMWF both indicate that Norbert will open into a trough as it becomes absorbed into the ITCZ in a couple of days, and the official forecast now indicates dissipation just after 48 h. Norbert continues to move toward the northwest at 3 kt. A slow northwestward motion is expected until dissipation as the cyclone is steered by weak mid-level ridging to its northeast. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various track consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 13.5N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 13.8N 106.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 14.4N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 14.7N 107.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-10-09 22:34:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 092034 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 106.3W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 106.3W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 13.8N 106.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.4N 107.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.7N 107.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 106.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-10-09 16:48:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 796 WTNT41 KNHC 091448 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta has weakened a little since the last advisory. The central pressure has risen to 962 mb, and the strongest 700-mb flight-level winds reported by the NOAA plane were 107 kt. In addition, SFMR wind estimates have been in the 85-95 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt. Delta is moving northward or 360/11 kt between a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough over the U.S. Southern Plains. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected during the next few hours, and the center is forecast to cross the southwestern coast of Louisiana late this afternoon or this evening. After landfall, a continued north-northeastward motion should bring the center across central and northeastern Louisiana by the 24 h point. Thereafter, Delta is expected to move generally northeastward through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys until it dissipates. The track forecast guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is little changed from the previous forecast. Increasing vertical shear and decreasing oceanic heat content along the forecast track should cause Delta to continue to weaken before landfall. However, there will still be significant impacts from winds and storm surge (see Key Messages below). After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, with Delta expected to weaken to a tropical storm tonight and to a tropical depression by Saturday afternoon or evening. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate between 60-72 h based on the consensus of the global models. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where Delta makes landfall this evening, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to the Mouth of the Pearl River. The highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. Water levels in this area will rise quickly this afternoon and evening as Delta approaches and efforts to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Hurricane-force winds are expected this afternoon and evening within portions of the Hurricane Warning area, especially along the coast of southwest Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will also spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of Deltas center this evening and tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana today and Saturday. Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 28.0N 93.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 30.0N 93.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0000Z 33.7N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1200Z 35.0N 88.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0000Z 36.7N 86.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-10-09 16:47:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 918 WTNT21 KNHC 091447 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...AND LAKE BORGNE A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SARGENT TEXAS * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER... INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 93.8W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB EYE DIAMETER 35 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 93.8W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 93.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 93.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 130SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.7N 90.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.0N 88.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.7N 86.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 93.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-10-09 16:33:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 091433 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Although the deep convection associated with Norbert has increased this morning during the diurnal maximum, it is lacking in organization. However, this new convection has bought the depression some time as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based off the latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. Since there is plenty of warm water along Norbert's forecast track, the cyclone will likely continue to sputter rounds of convection like this morning's for the next couple of days, which should at least maintain the system as a tropical depression during that time. In a few days, it is expected that the combination of a slow spin down of Norbert's vortex, and an increase in the environmental low-level flow should cause the system to open into a trough of low pressure. The latest NHC forecast no longer indicates a remnant low phase, but instead forecasts Norbert to remain a weak depression until dissipation in a few days. This solution is in agreement with the majority of the global models. Norbert is finally making its anticipated move toward the northwest, albeit at a meager 3 kt. A slow northwestward motion is expected until dissipation as the cyclone is steered by weak mid-level ridging to its northeast. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the various track consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 13.3N 106.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 13.6N 106.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 14.1N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 14.6N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 14.9N 108.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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