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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Forecast Advisory Number 32
2020-10-07 04:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 070244 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 136.2W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 136.2W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 136.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.2N 137.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.3N 138.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.3N 139.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.3N 140.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 140.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 136.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-10-07 04:38:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070238 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 PM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Norbert's satellite presentation has degraded slightly over the past several hours as its convective cloud tops have warmed compared to earlier today. The system may be feeling the effects of some weak westerly wind shear, as the coldest cloud tops are displaced somewhat to the east of the estimated low-level center position. Regardless, objective satellite estimates from UW-CIMSS and a T3.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB support holding the initial intensity at 45 kt with this advisory. Sea surface temperatures of 29 degrees Celsius and 10 kt or less of deep-layer vertical wind shear should support at least modest strengthening during the next 24 h or so. The latest SHIPS guidance indicates moderate southeasterly wind shear will develop over this small cyclone by Thursday and persist into the upcoming weekend. This should inhibit further intensification and may even cause Norbert to weaken. There is once again a fairly large spread in the intensity guidance, with the global models still struggling to capture this compact system and depicting steady weakening during the next few days. Meanwhile, SHIPS guidance maintains Norbert at tropical storm strength and even shows some gradual strengthening. Since the statistical-dynamical models have performed better with Norbert, the NHC intensity forecast once again trends above the consensus aids and closer to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance. The official forecast shows Norbert peaking as a 50-kt tropical storm on Wednesday, then weakening slightly on Thursday and leveling off through the weekend. Norbert is drifting slowly north-northwestward tonight. The storm is expected to remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days as distant Hurricane Delta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea weakens the mid-level ridge that had been steering Norbert. This weak steering environment could lead to some erratic storm motion until the ridge becomes re-established later this week, but the track guidance consensus suggests little movement during the next couple of days. By Friday night, the storm should begin moving slowly westward or west-northwestward, and the models are in better agreement with regards to this general storm motion at 72 h and beyond. The latest NHC track forecast follows the consensus aids more closely than any individual model solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 14.5N 106.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 14.6N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 14.7N 107.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 14.7N 107.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 14.7N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 14.8N 108.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 15.2N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 16.0N 110.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 16.5N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-10-07 04:34:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 070233 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 106.9W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 106.9W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 106.9W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.6N 107.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.7N 107.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.7N 107.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.7N 107.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.2N 108.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 16.0N 110.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 16.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 106.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BERG
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 31
2020-10-06 22:36:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 062036 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Marie's center remains exposed, with limited shower activity displaced more than 110 n mi northeast of the center. Consequently, the system is poised to become a remnant low tonight if organized convection doesn't redevelop near the center of circulation. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt, and is in best agreement with a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates and in deference to this morning's scatterometer data which indicated numerous 40-kt winds. Marie should continue to gradually spin down during the 36 hours while moving west-northwestward over 24C sea surface temperatures and through an extremely inhibiting surrounding environment. Through the remaining portion of the period, the post-tropical remnant low should turn westward within the low-level easterlies and open up into a trough of low pressure Friday. Only a small along-track adjustment was made to the NHC forecast in order to agree more with the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 22.4N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 22.8N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0600Z 23.4N 138.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1800Z 23.4N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0600Z 23.4N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Advisory Number 31
2020-10-06 22:35:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 062035 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 135.6W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 135.6W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 135.3W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.8N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.2N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.4N 138.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.4N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.4N 139.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 135.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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