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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 4

2020-10-06 17:09:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 061509 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 106.6W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 106.6W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.4N 106.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.5N 106.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 14.7N 106.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.8N 106.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.0N 107.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.2N 107.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 15.7N 109.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 16.1N 110.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 106.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 8

2020-10-06 16:54:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 061454 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Satellite imagery and recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data show that Delta is a very symmetric and compact hurricane. The aircraft reported a tiny 5-nmi-wide eye, which has also been seen in radar imagery from the Cayman Islands, and there is a hint of a pinhole eye in infrared satellite data. The central pressure has continued to fall, with the lastest center dropwindsonde data supporting a pressure of 955 mb. The plane has reported a peak flight-level winds of 109 kt, and believable SFMR winds of 102 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity is set at 100 kt, making Delta the third major hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. Delta has continued to rapidly strengthen over the past 24 hours, with an estimated 55-kt increase in wind speed between 1200 UTC Monday and 1200 UTC today. Environmental conditions of low vertical wind shear, deep warm waters, and sufficient mid-level moisture are expected to support additional rapid intensification through today, and the only reason that the strengthening could slow is if a difficult-to-predict eyewall replace cycle begins. The SHIPS Rapid intensification index continues to indicate a high likelihood of at least an additional 25-30 kt of intensity increase before the system reaches the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. Given that, the NHC intensity forecast is above the various intensity aids and call for Delta to be an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it nears the Yucatan. It could be stronger than indicated below since landfall is predicted to occur between the 12 and 24 h forecast points. Some reduction in intensity is likely when Delta moves over land, but the environmental conditions over the southern Gulf of Mexico are expected to support re-strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast shows a second peak in 48-72 hours. As mentioned before, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler shelf waters near the northern Gulf coast are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed, but Delta is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it nears the northern Gulf coast. Delta is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. A mid-level ridge that extends westward across Florida and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to steer Delta west-northwestward to northwestward during the next couple of days. As the hurricane nears the western portion of the ridge it should slow down. By day three a developing trough over the south-central United States is expected to cause Delta to turn northward toward the northern Gulf coast. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 48 hours, but there is still a fair amount of spread thereafter regarding the timing and details of the northward turn. The ECMWF and its ensemble mean are well west of the bulk of the remainder of the guidance. The NHC track lies near the TVCA multi-model consensus which is close to a blend of the GFS, HWRF, UKMET ensemble mean. Key Messages: 1. Extremely dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. The potential for heavy rain and flash flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta moves inland later this week. 3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 18.2N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 19.4N 84.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 21.0N 87.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 23.4N 91.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 24.6N 92.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 26.3N 92.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 30.5N 91.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 120H 11/1200Z 34.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 8

2020-10-06 16:50:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 061450 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * ISLE OF YOUTH * PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO * DZILAM TO PROGRESSO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 82.6W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 82.6W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 82.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.4N 84.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 87.2W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.4N 91.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N 92.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.3N 92.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 30.5N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 34.5N 87.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 82.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 30

2020-10-06 16:43:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 061443 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Marie continues to gradually spin down this morning, and the impressive burst of convection that developed near the surface center last night, now consists of a shrinking cloud mass with significantly warming cloud tops. Assuming some weakening since the last night's METOP-A and B scatterometer passes indicating peak winds of 40 kt, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt which is also supported by a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Marie is moving over cool oceanic sea surface temperatures and through a high statically stable air mass. The persistent, harsh vertical shear environment has displaced what remains of the cyclone's associated deep convection well to the northeast of the center. The Statistical-dynamical intensity guidance and the large-scale models are in general agreement with Marie degenerating into a trough of low pressure in 3 days, and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit. The initial motion estimate is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The cyclone should continue moving toward the west-northwest through Wednesday evening. Through the remaining portion of the period, the post-tropical remnant low should continue to gradually spin down while moving westward within the low-level easterlies and open up into a trough of low pressure by Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 22.1N 135.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0000Z 23.2N 138.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1200Z 23.2N 138.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/0000Z 23.2N 139.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 4

2020-10-06 16:43:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 061443 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 900 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020 The overall appearance of Norbert has changed little since early this morning, with a mass of deep convection pulsating over the low-level center. A blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support keeping the initial intensity at 40 kt. The environment appears conducive for Norbert to strengthen over warm waters with low vertical wind shear. Despite this, most of the global and hi-res dynamical models do not strengthen Norbert, and in fact the HWRF and HMON both weaken the system over the next couple of days. Therefore, the consensus aids also do not indicate that the system will intensify. On the other end of the spectrum, the SHIPS guidance favors strengthening over the next couple of days and indicates that Norbert will be nearing hurricane strength within a few days. The latest NHC forecast remains above the consensus aids but below the SHIPS guidance, suggesting some gradual strengthening over the next 48 h, prior to the increase in shear. Norbert continues to move northwestward at 6 kt, steered by a weakening mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico. The steering currents are forecast to collapse by tonight, and the cyclone is expected to meander through the middle of the week. By late this week, a weak mid-level ridge should build north of the cyclone which would result in a slow west-northwestward motion. Due to the weak steering flow, there is a larger than normal spread in the track guidance. The latest NHC forecast remains close to the consensus aids, and is slightly faster then the previous forecast at days 3-5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 14.2N 106.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 14.4N 106.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 14.5N 106.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 14.7N 106.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 14.8N 106.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 15.0N 107.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 15.2N 107.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 15.7N 109.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 16.1N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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