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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 7

2020-10-07 10:48:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 070848 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020 Norbert has weakened as entrainment of dry air has disrupted the compact system. The center was partially exposed overnight, but recent infrared imagery shows a new burst of deep convection near the center. Microwave imagery and ASCAT scatterometer wind data indicated the center had drifted southwest from its previous position, as the storm is beginning to meander within the weak steering flow. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt based on the recent ASCAT-A overpass that showed a peak wind of 33 kt, as well as a T2.5 Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The intensity forecast for Norbert remains tricky given its small circulation and the presence of dry air in the surrounding environment. Sea-surface temperatures are more than sufficient for at least modest strengthening, but the question will be whether Norbert can survive the increased southeasterly shear that the SHIPS guidance calls for during the next 24-48 h. If so, Norbert may remain a tropical storm through the next 5 days. Alternatively, the shear and additional bouts of dry air entrainment could weaken the system to a depression or even a remnant low late in the forecast period. While small intensity changes due to diurnal fluctuations in convection are certainly possible, the official NHC forecast keeps Norbert's intensity forecast at 35 kt in consideration of the mixed signals noted in the latest intensity guidance. As previously mentioned, the center of Norbert has drifted to the southwest overnight. The storm is expected to remain nearly stationary over the next couple of days as distant Hurricane Delta over the northwestern Caribbean Sea has weakened the ridge that had been steering Norbert. Therefore, the forecast track through 48 h is more uncertain than usual given the potential for erratic motion as indicated by the diverging model solutions. By Friday, Norbert should begin moving slowly westward or west-northwestward as the ridge gradually builds to the north. The NHC track forecast remains fairly close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 14.0N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 13.9N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 13.9N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 14.0N 107.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 14.0N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 14.1N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 14.6N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 15.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 16.5N 112.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart

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Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-10-07 10:45:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 070845 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 107.1W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 107.1W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 107.1W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.9N 107.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 10SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.9N 107.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.0N 107.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.0N 108.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.1N 108.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.6N 109.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 15.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 16.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/STEWART

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 10

2020-10-07 04:48:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 070247 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020 Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and conventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Delta has not intensified since earlier today. The central pressure has risen somewhat and the current intensity estimate, 115 kt, is probably generous based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from the NOAA plane. Although the hurricane continues to have very deep convection near and over the center, the cloud pattern lacks well-defined banding features, and an eye is not evident on either geostationary or polar-orbiting satellite images. Surveillance data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft suggest that Delta's circulation does not extend as markedly into the upper troposphere as one would expect for a major hurricane. Given the current state of the system, not much strengthening seems likely before the center reaches northeastern Yucatan tomorrow morning. Some weakening is likely due to the interaction with land during the next 12-18 hours. Re-intensification over the southern Gulf of Mexico is still expected, but when Delta reaches the northern Gulf, lower oceanic heat content is likely to cause at least slight weakening. The official intensity forecast is somewhat above most of the model guidance, but not much different from the regional hurricane models, HWRF and HMON, over the northern Gulf. Fixes from the aircraft indicate a continued west-northwestward motion at just a slightly slower forward speed, 300/14 kt. The track forecast reasoning is basically unchanged from earlier today. Delta should move along and around the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone centered just east of Florida for the next couple of days. Around 72 hours, the flow ahead of a shortwave trough over the south-central United States should cause the tropical cyclone to turn north-northeastward and move across the central Gulf coast late Friday or early Saturday. The official track forecast remains close to the dynamical model consensus, TVCA. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and potentially catastrophic wind damage are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight. All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. The potential for heavy rain, flash and possible minor river flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta moves inland later this week. 3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 19.5N 85.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 20.9N 87.1W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.8W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 08/1200Z 23.6N 91.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 25.0N 92.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 26.8N 92.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 29.0N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 33.0N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0000Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 10

2020-10-07 04:46:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 070246 TCMAT1 HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * ISLE OF YOUTH * PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO * DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DELTA. HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 85.1W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 85.1W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 84.5W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.9N 87.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.6N 91.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.0N 92.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.8N 92.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.0N 92.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 33.0N 89.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 36.0N 86.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 85.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Forecast Discussion Number 32

2020-10-07 04:46:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Oct 06 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 070245 TCDEP3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 500 PM HST Tue Oct 06 2020 Patchy shower activity continues nearly 250 n mi to the northeast of Marie's center--way too far away and way too weak for the system to still be classified as a tropical cyclone. Marie has therefore become a remnant low, with maximum winds set at 30 kt since an ASCAT-C pass around 1800 UTC did not register any winds of tropical storm force. The remnant circulation is expected to gradually spin down during the next few days due to cold waters, dry air, and southwesterly shear of about 40 kt. The global models generally show the remnant low hanging around for the next 3 days and then opening up into a trough by day 4, and that is reflected in this last NHC advisory. Marie continues moving toward the west-northwest, or 300/7 kt. A fairly weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north should keep Marie on a west-northwestward heading for the next 24 hours, followed by a westward motion with a gradual decrease in speed from 36 to 72 hours. Most of the track models seem to pull the remnant low too far to the north during the next day or so, and the NHC track forecast is therefore near the southern side of the guidance envelope, between HCCA and the previous interpolated official forecast. This is the last advisory on Marie. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 22.5N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/0000Z 23.2N 137.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/1200Z 23.3N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/0000Z 23.3N 139.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 09/1200Z 23.3N 140.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0000Z 23.3N 140.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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