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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 6

2020-09-19 04:57:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 190257 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT MANSFIELD...TX TO HIGH ISLAND...TX INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY...CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT ARANSAS...TX TO HIGH ISLAND...TX. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE AND EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TO MORGAN CITY LA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD...TX TO HIGH ISLAND...TX INCLUDING BAFFIN BAY...CORPUS CHRISTI BAY...COPANO BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...AND GALVESTON BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE * EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 92.3W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 40SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 92.3W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 92.4W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.3N 92.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 26.8N 92.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.8N 93.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 27.0N 94.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.4N 95.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 27.8N 96.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 28.4N 95.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 29.4N 94.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 92.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 27

2020-09-19 04:56:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 190256 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 57.4W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT.......110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 270SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 57.4W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 57.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.5N 58.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.3N 60.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 170SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 29.0N 61.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.8N 62.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.5N 61.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 150SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 37.7N 61.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. 34 KT...310NE 230SE 220SW 290NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 45.5N 62.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 50.5N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 57.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-09-19 04:46:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 241 WTNT43 KNHC 190246 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 Conventional satellite imagery shows that Wilfred's surface circulation has lost quite a bit of definition during the last several hours, and it has been difficult to pinpoint the center. Additionally, deep convection has become less organized and the cloud tops just to the east of the estimated center position have warmed considerably. The initial intensity is generously held at 35 kt for this advisory and is in best agreement with blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The GFS and ECMWF global model soundings indicate 30-35 kt of northeasterly shear at about 300 mb, and it's apparently undercutting the much lighter, diffluent southeasterly flow above. Statistical-dynamical guidance, however, still show an outside chance of some strengthening Saturday, and the NHC forecast follows suit. Afterward, a combination of Teddy's massive outflow and increasing northwesterly shear produced by an mid- to upper-level trough to the north of the cyclone, should induce slow weakening on Sunday and this trend should continue through the forecast period. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/16 kt, and the cyclone is being steered by a low to mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge to the north. A few of the global models are hinting at a slow turn toward the north-northwest prior to dissipation as the steering pattern becomes very meridional with developing high amplitude high pressure over the eastern Atlantic, and Hurricane Teddy well to the northwest creating a large weakness over the western Atlantic. For now, the NHC forecast shows some reduction in forward speed at day 3, before dissipation, and lies close to the consensus aids, HCCA and TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 12.8N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 13.5N 38.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 14.5N 40.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 15.8N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 16.7N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 17.3N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 17.9N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 3

2020-09-19 04:45:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 190245 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 19 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 36.0W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 120SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 36.0W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 35.2W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.5N 38.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.5N 40.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.8N 43.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.7N 46.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 48.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.9N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 36.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Forecast Discussion Number 3

2020-09-19 04:36:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 190236 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Alpha Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020 300 AM GMT Sat Sep 19 2020 METEOSAT imagery, IPMA radar data, and surface observations indicate that Alpha has degenerated to a post-tropical remnant low just a few miles to the southeast of Viseu, Portugal. Therefore, this the last NHC advisory. Surface wind data support an initial intensity of 25 kt. The rapidly deteriorating small remnant low is expected to move generally toward the northeast at about 14 kt for the next 6 to 12 hours before dissipating over northern Spain by Saturday night. The NHC forecast track is basically an update of the previous advisory and lies between the tightly clustered deterministic guidance. Additional information on the hazards from this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 40.9N 6.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 19/1200Z 42.6N 4.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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