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Tropical Storm Beta Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-18 22:52:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 182052 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BETA. STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 93.1W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 93.1W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 93.3W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.1N 92.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 25.9N 93.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 26.1N 93.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.3N 94.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 26.5N 95.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 26.8N 96.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 27.5N 96.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 28.5N 96.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 93.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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beta
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Subtropical Storm Alpha Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-18 22:49:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 248 WTNT24 KNHC 182049 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN PORTUGAL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALPHA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS FROM THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND ATMOSPHERE AT WWW.IPMA.PT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 8.4W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 8.4W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 9.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 42.1N 6.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.4N 8.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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alpha
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advisory
Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-18 22:45:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 182045 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 There haven't been a lot of changes with Wilfred today, with the northern side of the circulation looking rather dry while the center remains close to a burst of convection. The initial wind speed is kept 35 kt, closest to the TAFB classification. Wilfred could strengthen some during the next day or so before increasing upper-level westerlies winds likely begin by Sunday. A gradual weakening is expected into early next week, though the model guidance is in worse agreement than the last advisory due to the positioning of an upper-level low. The forecast continues to show the storm ending up on the convergent side of the low and dissipating, close to the previous one. Wilfred is moving west-northwestward at about 16 kt, after accounting for a re-positioning westward. Most of the guidance agrees on a scenario that maintains this track for the next few days, with a turn toward the west as the cyclones dissipates. The new forecast is closest to the GFS-based guidance. Similar to the intensity forecast, however, there are some models that suggest Wilfred could slow down and turn to the right in a couple of days if it is stronger than anticipated. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 12.5N 34.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 13.2N 36.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 14.3N 39.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 15.4N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 16.4N 45.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 17.1N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 17.5N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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discussion
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tropical
Tropical Storm Wilfred Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-18 22:44:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 900 WTNT23 KNHC 182043 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM WILFRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 34.4W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 120SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 34.4W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 33.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.2N 36.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 14.3N 39.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 15.4N 42.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.4N 45.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.1N 48.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.5N 50.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 34.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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storm
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tropical
Subtropical Storm Alpha Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-09-18 18:34:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 430 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 181634 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Alpha Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020 430 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020 The small low pressure area that has been rotating around a larger extratropical low in the far northeastern Atlantic has become better organized this morning. Moderate-to-deep convection has persisted near the center since last night, scatterometer data shows a closed 40-kt low, and radar images from Portugal show a definite organized convective pattern. While the system is still in the cyclonic envelope of the large extratropical low and likely neutral- or cold-core, it has developed enough tropical characteristics to be considered a subtropical storm. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt in accordance with the scatterometer data, assuming some undersampling for this small system. Little change in strength is forecast until landfall in Portugal during the next couple of hours. Global models show the small low moving northeastward at about 15 kt for the next 24 hours before dissipating over northern Spain or the Bay of Biscay. The track and intensity forecasts are consistent with the consensus guidance. Additional information on the hazards from this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1630Z 39.9N 9.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 41.5N 7.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 19/1200Z 44.2N 4.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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