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Subtropical Storm Alpha Forecast Advisory Number 1

2020-09-18 18:32:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1630 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 181632 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM ALPHA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL242020 1630 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN PORTUGAL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ALPHA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PRODUCTS FROM THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR SEA AND ATMOSPHERE AT WWW.IPMA.PT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 9.3W AT 18/1630Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 9.3W AT 18/1630Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 10.3W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 41.5N 7.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 44.2N 4.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.9N 9.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 25

2020-09-18 16:50:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 181450 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 There was little change to the structure of Teddy since early this morning up until the past hour or so, when the eye began to fill in slightly while the cloud tops over the southern portion of the circulation warmed a bit. However, new convection with very cold cloud tops near -80 degrees C have developed recently over the northwestern quadrant, so the cyclone could just be undergoing a temporary intensity fluctuation that typically occurs in powerful hurricanes. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates range from 102 kt to 116 kt, and the initial intensity is being held at 115 kt for this advisory. There will be staggered NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hunter aircraft investigating Teddy starting this morning and continuing into the late afternoon, so they will soon be able to provide updated details on the latest structure, size, and intensity of the hurricane. The major hurricane continues to move northwestward, now at 10 kt. Teddy is expected to remain on that general course during the next couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. By the end of the weekend, when Teddy will likely be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or north-northeast is forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough moves off the northeastern U.S. coast. Early next week, the trough is expected to cut off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left and approach Nova Scotia in 4 to 5 days. The models continue to be in good agreement on this scenario, and only small adjustments were made to the previous forecast track. Teddy will likely fluctuate in intensity over the next day or so while it remains in favorable conditions of low wind shear, warm waters, and a fairly moist air mass. By late this weekend, the hurricane is forecast to traverse over cooler waters churned up by Paulette last week. This should cause a weakening trend to begin. By Monday night, vertical wind shear is expected to drastically increase ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough. This should not only weaken Teddy, but begin its transition to a large extratropical cyclone, and that transition should be completed before the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus aid HCCA through 36 h, and then trends toward the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance thereafter. Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The latest maximum seas estimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are near 45 feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center, see Key Messages below. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near the island are not yet known, there is a risk strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda, and watches may be issued later today or tonight. 2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 22.1N 56.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 23.3N 57.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 25.2N 58.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 27.1N 60.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 28.7N 62.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 30.7N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 33.7N 62.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 41.4N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 46.8N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Forecast Discussion Number 4

2020-09-18 16:49:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 181449 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is getting better organized, with gradually increasing convective banding in the northeastern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates include 35 kt from TAFB, 30 kt from SAB, and 35 kt from CIMSS satellite consensus, which means the depression is close to tropical-storm strength. Given the lack of organization seen in earlier scatterometer data, the intensity will be held at 30 kt pending the data from the next set of scatterometer overpasses. It should be noted that the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that was scheduled to investigate the depression had to turn back after getting hit by lightning. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 015/6. For the next 24 h or so, the cyclone should move north-northeastward as it is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas and northeastern Mexico. This trough is then expected to lift out to the northeast, with low- to mid-level ridging building to the north of the cyclone. This should cause a westward turn at a continued slow forward speed. Near the end of the forecast period, a mid-latitude trough over the central United States should cause the ridge to weaken and steer the cyclone northward to northeastward near the Texas coast. While the guidance agrees with this general sense of the motion, there are a lot of differences in the models on the when's and where's of the various turns. Therefore, it is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at days 4 and 5 when the average NHC forecast error is about 175 and 200 miles, respectively. The depression is currently in an environment of light to moderate southwesterly shear, and the global models suggest that this will generally continue through the forecast period. This, combined with forecast dry air entrainment near the 72 h point, has resulted in the intensity guidance keeping the system near to below hurricane strength through the forecast period. The new intensity forecast is changed little from the previous one and calls for the cyclone to be at hurricane strength at 60 and 72 h. However, this part of the forecast lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm, and possibly a hurricane, while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. 2. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along the Texas coast from Sunday through at least the middle of next week as the system is forecast to move slowly near the Texas coast. For additional information, see products from your local National Weather Service office. 3. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct wind and storm surge impacts from this system, interests throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system and future updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 23.8N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 24.8N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 25.9N 93.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 26.3N 93.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 26.5N 94.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 21/0000Z 26.6N 95.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 26.9N 96.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 27.5N 96.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 28.5N 95.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Forecast Advisory Number 4

2020-09-18 16:47:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 181447 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 93.9W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 93.9W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 94.1W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 24.8N 93.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.9N 93.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 26.3N 93.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 26.5N 94.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 26.6N 95.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 26.9N 96.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 27.5N 96.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 28.5N 95.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 93.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 25

2020-09-18 16:39:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 181439 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTEREST IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 56.1W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 300SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 56.1W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 55.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.3N 57.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.2N 58.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.1N 60.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.7N 62.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.7N 62.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.7N 62.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 170SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 41.4N 62.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 46.8N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 56.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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