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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-09-06 04:51:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060251 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Julio Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020 1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 05 2020 Satellite imagery, including recently received microwave overpasses, shows that Julio has changed little in organization during the past several hours, with the small low-level circulation center is located near the eastern edge of the small area of central convection. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on continuity and a satellite intensity estimated from TAFB. The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/15 kt. The latest global models runs continue to have trouble resolving Julio, but overall the cyclone is embedded in an east-southeasterly flow on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. A general west- northwestward motion should continue with a decrease in forward speed until the system dissipates. The new forecast track again leans more toward the ECMWF model, which does the best job of resolving Julio. The tropical storm will be affected by moderate to strong easterly wind shear for the next day or two, and only sight strengthening is likely during that time. While the shear is forecast to diminish after 24-36 h, the cyclone will encounter a drier and more stable air mass at that time, which should lead to the dissipation of the small system. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, and it lies below the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 16.6N 104.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 17.5N 106.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 18.5N 108.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 19.4N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 20.3N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 21.1N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-09-06 04:50:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 060250 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 0300 UTC SUN SEP 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 104.2W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 104.2W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 103.5W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 106.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.5N 108.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.4N 110.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.3N 110.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.1N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 104.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-09-05 22:31:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 808 WTNT45 KNHC 052031 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Omar Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 Omar continues to separate from a small lingering area of deep convection that is located more than 100 n mi south-southwest of the center. During the past couple of days, Omar has produced just enough convection to maintain its status of a tropical depression, but now it no longer meets the criteria of sufficently organized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone. Therefore, this is the last advisory on Omar issued by NHC. The initial intensity of the remnant low is 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data that showed a region of 25-30 kt winds east of the center. The remnant low is moving northward at 9 kt, a couple of hundred miles east of a cold front. The models suggest that the remnants of Omar should accelerate north-northeastward and merge with the front in about 24 hours, leading to extratropical transition. Dissipation is expected shortly thereafter. For additional and future information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 38.4N 56.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/0600Z 40.2N 55.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1800Z 43.3N 52.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Julio Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-05 22:31:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 807 WTPZ25 KNHC 052031 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152020 2100 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 102.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 102.7W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 101.9W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.9N 105.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 107.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 109.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.9N 110.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.5N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 102.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-09-05 16:39:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 051439 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020 Omar is barely a tropical cyclone. The center is completely exposed to the north of a slowly shrinking area of sheared deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. Omar remains in an environment of northerly wind shear, dry air, and it is headed toward cool waters. These conditions should cause Omar to finally become a remnant low soon. Although the forecast shows the system becoming a remnant low at 24 hours, it certainty could become one at any time before then after its limited amount of deep convection dissipates. Satellite images show an approaching cold front about 300 n mi to the northwest of Omar. This front is expected to merge with the system, causing Omar or its remnants to become extratropical by Sunday afternoon. The tropical depression is now moving northward at 9 kt. A much faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the remainder of the weekend as Omar, or its remnants, become more embedded in the fast steering flow ahead of the aforementioned cold front. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 37.4N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 39.0N 56.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 41.9N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 45.2N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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