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Tropical Depression Nana Forecast Discussion Number 11

2020-09-03 22:36:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 032036 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Nana Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Nana continues to weaken over land, with only a small area of convection remaining near and to the south of the low-level center. It is estimated that Nana has weakened to a 30-kt tropical depression, although as with the last advisory there are no observations near the cyclone's core and thus the estimate is rather uncertain. Continued weakening is expected, and Nana is likely to be a remnant low pressure area by the time it reaches the Gulf of Tehuantepec in 12-24 h. The global models continue to forecast conditions that are not conducive for Nana to re-intensify, so the intensity forecast calls for the remnant low to dissipate by 48 h even though it will be over water. There is a possibility that a low pressure area will re-form over the Pacific in association with the remnants of Nana late this weekend or early next week, but the chances of re-generation to a tropical cyclone appear low at this time. The initial motion is 255/12 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Nana should keep it moving on a westward to west-southwestward track during the remainder of the cyclone's life. The new official forecast track is again similar to the previous track and lies near the various consensus models, KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 3 to 6 inches could result in flash flooding in Guatemala and portions of southeastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 16.0N 91.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/0600Z 15.5N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1800Z 15.0N 95.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 14.7N 97.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Depression Nana Forecast Advisory Number 11

2020-09-03 22:35:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 032035 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162020 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 91.1W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 91.1W AT 03/2100Z...INLAND AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 90.5W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.5N 92.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.0N 95.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.7N 97.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 91.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 13

2020-09-03 22:34:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 032034 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020 The GOES-16 visible and enhanced infrared satellite presentation has changed little during the past several hours and is comprised of a sheared depression with a deep convective mass decoupled well to the south of the surface circulation center. Based on the earlier METOP-B scatterometer pass and the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt. Gradual weakening is still forecast during the next couple of days as the cyclone continues to move in the persistent, blistering northerly shear environment on the order of 40 to 45 kt. Large-scale models insist that Omar will degenerate to a remnant low in 24 hours, or less, and dissipate by Sunday morning. The NHC forecast will, once again, reflect this scenario. It appears that the slightly larger non-tropical low a few hundred miles to the east-northeast of Omar is causing the depression to move in an east-southeastward fashion at 9 kt. This binary interaction is only temporary, however, and Omar should return to an eastward track by Friday morning as the low pressure system downstream accelerates northeastward. Afterward, a turn toward the northeast is forecast early Saturday morning in response to an approaching frontal boundary from the northwest, and the Azores high several hundred miles to the east building southwestward over the central Atlantic. The official forecast is a little to the south of the previous advisory and is based on a blend of the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 35.4N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 35.3N 58.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 35.3N 57.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 36.3N 56.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 37.5N 56.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 13

2020-09-03 22:33:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 032033 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 60.1W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 60.1W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 60.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 35.3N 58.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 35.3N 57.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 36.3N 56.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 37.5N 56.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.4N 60.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

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Tropical Storm Nana Forecast Discussion Number 10

2020-09-03 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 031435 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162020 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020 Satellite imagery indicates that Nana is weakening rapidly as it crosses northern Guatemala. There are no available observations near the center, so the initial intensity estimate of 40 kt is rather uncertain. Continued weakening is expected, and Nana is likely to be a remnant low pressure area by the time it reaches the Gulf of Tehuantepec in about 24 h. The global models continue to forecast conditions that are not conducive for Nana to re-intensify, so the intensity forecast calls for the remnant low to dissipate by 48 h even though it will be over water. The initial motion is 260/13 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Nana should keep it moving on a west to west-southwestward track during the remainder of the cyclone's life. The new official forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the various consensus models, KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue near the center of Nana for a few more hours. 2. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 3 to 6 inches could result in flash flooding in Guatemala and portions of southeastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 16.4N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 16.0N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1200Z 15.4N 94.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 14.9N 96.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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