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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 17

2020-09-04 22:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 042033 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 Omar continues to hang on as a tropical depression. The cyclone is producing a small area of thunderstorms to the south of the center, enough to continue writing advisories on this system for now. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. Omar has been more resistant than expected to the ongoing northerly wind shear, but the models insist that the continued shear, dry air, and cooler waters should cause it to decay to a remnant low this evening or early Saturday and dissipate entirely by Saturday night. The tropical depression is still moving eastward at about 5 kt. An approaching deep-layer trough should cause Omar to turn north- northeastward tonight and then accelerate in that direction until it dissipates over the northern central Atlantic this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 35.3N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 36.2N 57.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1800Z 38.0N 56.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 17

2020-09-04 22:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 042032 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 57.3W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 57.3W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 57.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 36.2N 57.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 38.0N 56.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 57.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 16

2020-09-04 16:42:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 041441 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 Omar produced minimal deep convection from around 2100 UTC yesterday through 1200 UTC this morning. Since that time, a new burst of convection has developed close enough to the depression's center to justify continuing advisories for the moment. If this convection dissipates soon, like a few small overnight bursts did, Omar will likely be declared post-tropical this afternoon due to a lack of organized convection. ASCAT-B showed a few believable 25-30 kt vectors and is the basis for the intensity analysis. Omar's status has no meaningful bearing on the forecast. An approaching deep-layer trough from the west should cause the weak cyclone to turn northeastward or north-northeastward later today and accelerate in that direction through the weekend. A lack of deep convection and the increase in forward speed will likely cause Omar to dissipate by early Sunday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 35.2N 57.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 35.8N 57.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1200Z 37.1N 56.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0000Z 39.0N 55.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 16

2020-09-04 16:41:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 041441 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 57.8W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 57.8W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 58.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 35.8N 57.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 37.1N 56.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 39.0N 55.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 57.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 15

2020-09-04 10:36:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040835 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 Although it is situated over fairly warm waters of a little over 27 deg C, Omar has been producing very little deep convection overnight while it continues to be affected by strong northerly shear. Some dry air is also being entrained into the circulation. The current intensity of 25 kt is based on continuity from earlier scatterometer measurements. If the lack of convection continues, Omar will be declared a remnant low pressure system later today. In any event, the cyclone should become absorbed by a frontal trough within a couple of days. After turning east-southeastward, Omar is now headed east at a rather slow pace, or 090/6 kt. The system should turn toward the northeast and accelerate ahead of a large mid-level trough within 36-48 hours. The official forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one but slower than the latest track model consensus predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 35.3N 58.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 35.6N 57.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0600Z 36.5N 57.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1800Z 38.1N 56.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0600Z 40.5N 54.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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