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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 2

2021-09-12 22:59:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 122059 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 2100 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO FREEPORT... TEXAS. A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS INCLUDING ARANSAS BAY, SAN ANTONIO BAY, AND MATAGORDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO SARGENT. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS * ARANSAS BAY, SAN ANTONIO BAY, AND MATAGORDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO SARGENT TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO FREEPORT TEXAS * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE, DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 95.5W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 95.5W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 95.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.4N 96.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 26.7N 96.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.7N 96.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 30.4N 96.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 110SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.2N 95.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.7N 95.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.9N 94.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 95.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 1

2021-09-12 17:03:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 121502 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure over the southern Bay of Campeche have increased overnight and very recently become better organized with a loose band of convection around the northeastern portion of the circulation. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been investigating the system has found 44-kt flight-level winds and SFMR winds that support a 35-kt initial intensity. Based on the recent increase in organization and the 35-kt initial intensity, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Nicholas, the fourteenth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. The storm is located within an environment of moderate south-southwesterly vertical wind shear, over warm waters, and in a moist and unstable atmosphere. These conditions should allow gradual strengthening over the next 24 to 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows suit and calls for gradual strengthening until the system reaches the coast of Texas. The official wind speed forecast is near the higher end of the guidance in best agreement with the SHIPS statistical guidance, the HFIP corrected consensus, and the HWRF. In this case, the intensity forecast is highly dependent on eventual track of the system. A track to the east of the NHC forecast could result in a lower wind shear environment and slightly more time over water for the system to strengthen. Conversely a track to the west of the forecast track would result in the system interacting with land much sooner. Since the system is still in its formative stage the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 330/11 kt. A north-northwestward motion around the western portion of a mid-level ridge that is sliding east near the coast of the Carolinas, should continue to steer Nicholas in that direction for the next 24 to 48 hours. After that time, steering currents weaken and the cyclone is expected to move slowly north-northeastward between a couple of mid-level ridges located to the east and west of Nicholas. The track guidance generally agrees with this overall scenario but there is some cross-track spread with the UKMET along the left side of the guidance envelope taking the storm into northeastern Mexico, while the GFS, HWRF, and HMON are along the right side. The NHC track is near the various consensus models and both the EC and GFS ensemble means. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning on Monday. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm on Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the middle and upper Texas coasts late Monday night and Tuesday. 2. There is the possibility of life-threatening storm surge along the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts today through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of flash, urban, and isolated river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 20.5N 94.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 21.9N 95.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 24.1N 96.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 26.4N 96.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 28.2N 96.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 29.4N 95.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 15/1200Z 30.3N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 16/1200Z 31.0N 94.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 17/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 1

2021-09-12 16:57:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 690 WTNT24 KNHC 121457 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 1500 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM BARRA EL MEZQUITAL NORTHWARD TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER. A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS * BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 94.8W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 94.8W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 94.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.9N 95.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.1N 96.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.4N 96.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.2N 96.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.4N 95.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.3N 95.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 31.0N 94.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 94.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry Forecast Discussion Number 44

2021-09-11 16:38:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 111437 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 Satellite images indicate that Larry has completed its transition to a post-tropical cyclone with most of the deep convection dissipating near the low-level center and frontal features developing. In addition, the low- and mid-level centers are now well separated, and the cyclone appears a little weaker. The initial intensity is estimated to be 60 kt. The post-tropical system is very large and gale-force winds and high seas extend far from the center. It is interesting to note that up to just several hours ago Larry had maintained an inner core and a fairly tropical appearance despite being at very high latitudes and over quite cold water. Larry is racing northeastward, with the initial motion estimated to be 030/42 kt. The storm is expected to merge with another large extratropical low tonight or early Sunday. This is the last NHC advisory on Larry. For more information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry will continue to affect portions of the the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 54.0N 48.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 12/0000Z 57.8N 44.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Larry Forecast Advisory Number 44

2021-09-11 16:37:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 111436 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 54.0N 48.2W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 42 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT.......210NE 270SE 210SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 600SE 840SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 54.0N 48.2W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 52.5N 49.5W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 57.8N 44.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 360SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 54.0N 48.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON LARRY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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