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Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 15

2021-09-11 10:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110834 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021 Olaf has been without deep convection for about the last 18 hours, and it is therefore being designated as a remnant low. A scatterometer pass from several hours ago still showed winds of 25-30 kt occurring to the north of the center, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. Weakening is expected during the next few days while the remnant low traverses waters of about 25 degrees Celsius and through a very dry air mass. Global model fields show the circulation opening up into a trough anywhere between 2 and 6 days from now, so as a compromise the official forecast indicates this happening by day 4, but it's likely to be sooner than that. Olaf is now losing latitude and moving south of due west, or 260/5 kt. A strengthening low- to mid-level ridge to the north is expected to force the remnant low to the west-southwest and southwest during the next several days. In fact, the models have been trending toward a more pronounced loss of latitude, and this final NHC track forecast has been shifted southward from the previous advisory--close to the TVCE model consensus but not nearly as far south as the HCCA aid. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 24.4N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 11/1800Z 24.2N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0600Z 23.7N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1800Z 22.8N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0600Z 21.5N 118.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/1800Z 20.6N 119.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0600Z 20.1N 120.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

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Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 15

2021-09-11 10:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 110833 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 114.0W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 114.0W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 113.7W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.2N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.7N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.8N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.5N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 20.6N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 20.1N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 114.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 43

2021-09-11 10:32:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 110832 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 43 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Sat Sep 11 2021 Larry made landfall near South East Bight, Newfoundland, around 0345 UTC. Since then, the hurricane has moved quickly north- northeastward at 42 kt and is now well northeast of Newfoundland. Although the hurricane still has some central convection, the low- and mid-level centers are separating, and the remaining convection is decreasing. The initial winds are lowered to 65 kt, consistent with the degraded structure. Larry should quickly transition into a strong post-tropical cyclone later today while it continues its speedy north-northeastward course, then dissipate as it merges with a developing mid-latitude low over the Labrador Sea. No significant changes were made to the track or intensity forecasts. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 50.7N 51.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 56.0N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 43

2021-09-11 10:30:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 403 WTNT22 KNHC 110830 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC SAT SEP 11 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL WARNINGS FOR NEWFOUNDLAND HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.7N 51.7W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 42 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 120SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT.......180NE 240SE 150SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 350SE 660SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 50.7N 51.7W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 48.8N 53.3W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 56.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 360SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 50.7N 51.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Depression Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 14

2021-09-11 04:49:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110249 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Olaf Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 Olaf continues to rapidly weaken this evening as the low-level circulation spins down while devoid of any deep convection. Olaf has now failed to produce deep convection for more than 12 hours, and barring any diurnal convective bursts tonight, could become a remnant low as soon as tomorrow morning. Winds along the coast of Baja California Sur are gradually subsiding, and the most recent TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak data-T intensity estimates support downgrading Olaf to a tropical depression this advisory, with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt. The tropical depression's track continues to bend leftward as it pulls away from Baja California Sur, with the latest motion estimate now due west at 270/7 kt. Now that Olaf has become a shallow cyclone, it will primarily be steered by the low-level flow around a extensive subtropical ridge located to the northwest. This flow will continue to turn Olaf to the left with a southwestward motion beginning in the next 24 hours, which should continue until the cyclone dissipates. The official NHC track forecast was nudged a little to the south and east, following the multi-model consensus aids. A combination of cooling sea-surface temperatures (below 26 C) and very dry-mid level air (below 40 percent relative humidity) should ensure that Olaf will soon meet a swift end as a tropical cyclone. The official NHC intensity forecast now makes Olaf a remnant low in 12 hours, and spins the circulation down to 20 kt until eventual dissipation over the open east Pacific. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 24.7N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 24.7N 114.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 12/0000Z 24.4N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/1200Z 23.6N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 13/0000Z 22.7N 117.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/1200Z 21.7N 118.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 21.0N 120.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 20.6N 121.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

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