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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-09-10 22:43:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 102043 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO SOUTH OF SANTA FE AND AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LORETO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO SOUTHWARD TO SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 112.7W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 112.7W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.8N 113.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.7N 114.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.2N 115.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.3N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.3N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.4N 119.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 20.8N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 20.5N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 112.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 11/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 41
2021-09-10 22:43:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 102043 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM ARNOLD'S COVE TO JONES HARBOUR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM FRANCOIS TO WEST OF ARNOLD'S COVE * SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND FROM NORTH OF JONES HARBOR TO FOGO ISLAND A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 58.2W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 120SW 80NW. 34 KT.......220NE 220SE 180SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 330SE 420SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 58.2W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 59.5W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.6N 53.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 230SE 210SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 54.9N 46.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 300SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 58.6N 42.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 330SE 360SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.5N 58.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 11/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-09-10 16:51:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 101450 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Olaf Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 10 2021 The satellite presentation of Olaf has significantly degraded over the past several hours after the center moved across the southern portion of Baja California Sur overnight. The system's organized convection has collapsed, and infrared satellite imagery indicates cloud top temperatures are rapidly warming near the estimated center position. The initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt for this advisory, which now makes Olaf a tropical storm. This estimate may still be generous, but limited surface observations and radar data make it difficult to confidently assess the intensity. Hopefully, scatterometer data this afternoon will provide more insight into changes in Olaf's surface wind field. The tropical storm has slowed down a bit since last night, and its estimated motion is northwest (310 degrees) at 9 kt. Recent microwave imagery suggests the center of Olaf is just offshore the southwestern coast of Baja California Sur, and the cyclone is likely to move roughly parallel to the coast today. Then, a strong mid-level high pressure ridge centered over the southern Rockies is expected to build westward to the north of Olaf. This ridge should turn Olaf toward the west by tonight, and then toward the southwest through early next week. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous forecast once again, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus aids. Olaf is likely to continue rapidly weakening during the next couple of days. In the short-term, its proximity to the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula will disrupt its ability to sustain organized convection. As Olaf moves away from land, the cyclone will encounter decreasing sea-surface temperatures and very dry mid-level air, which should expedite its transition into a post-tropical cyclone. In fact, the latest GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery show Olaf becoming completely devoid of convection within the next 24-36 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows more rapid weakening than the previous one, primarily based on recent satellite trends and the lower initial intensity. The official forecast remains below the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, which are inflated by the SHIPS and LGEM models that fail to weaken Olaf during the next 24 h. Key Messages: 1. Olaf is forecast to move along the southwestern coast of the Baja California peninsula today, with tropical storm conditions continuing over southern portions of Baja California Sur through this evening. These winds should diminish tonight as Olaf continues weakening and turns westward away from land. 2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of southern Baja California Sur through today. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 24.1N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 24.5N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 24.6N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 24.3N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 12/1200Z 23.4N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 22.4N 117.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z 21.6N 118.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 20.7N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 40
2021-09-10 16:48:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 101448 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 Larry remains a well organized hurricane at a high latitude, and it is quickly approaching southeastern Newfoundland. Satellite images show a fairly tight inner core and large curved bands surrounding that feature. However, there are some notable dry slots between the core and bands that have developed during the past several hours. The latest Dvorak numbers have nudged downward, with the CI values ranging between 65 kt and 72 kt. Based on these estimates, and a very recent ASCAT pass that showed peak winds near 65 kt, the initial intensity is set at 70 kt for this advisory. The cyclone remains quite large, with hurricane-force winds and tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend outward up to 80 and 210 n mi from the center, respectively. The hurricane is in the process of turning to the right, with the latest initial motion estimated to be a fairly quick 015/25 kt. An even faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day or two as the hurricane moves in the fast flow between a mid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern U.S./eastern Canada and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. This motion should take Larry across southeastern Newfoundland tonight. Larry is then expected to merge with a large extratropical low over the Labrador Sea on Sunday. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Although Larry will be moving over cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream Current later today, the hurricane will likely hold its strength or weaken just a little before landfall. After landfall, the models show the inner core dissipating, and the combination of land interaction, cooler waters, and an increase in shear should cause weakening and lead to extratropical transition by early Saturday. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the GFS model, which often performs well for hurricanes that transition to extratropical cyclones. Key Messages: 1. Larry is forecast to move over portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight as it undergoes transition to a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone. Hurricane conditions, a dangerous storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected in portions of southeastern Newfoundland where a Hurricane Warning in effect. 2. Large swells generated by Larry will continue to affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada through Saturday night. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 40.0N 60.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 45.1N 56.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 52.0N 49.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/0000Z 57.5N 44.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/1200Z 61.1N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Olaf Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-09-10 16:48:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 007 WTPZ25 KNHC 101447 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152021 1500 UTC FRI SEP 10 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM TODOS SANTOS TO CABO SAN LAZARO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MEXICO FROM PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO SOUTHWARD AND AROUND THE PENINSULA TO LORETO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 111.3W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 45SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 111.3W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 110.9W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.5N 112.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.6N 113.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.3N 114.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.4N 115.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.4N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 20.7N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 111.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 10/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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