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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 25

2020-07-12 22:31:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 122031 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 125.5W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 125.5W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 124.9W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.0N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.4N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.0N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.5N 135.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 137.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 125.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 24

2020-07-12 16:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 121434 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Cristina's convective pattern continues to rapidly erode with only a small patch of moderate convection remaining in the northeastern quadrant. Based on overnight scatterometer winds of 39 kt and the significant decrease in convection since that time, it is assumed that additional vortex spindown has occurred over 23 deg C water, and the initial intensity is therefore decreased to 35 kt, which is also supported by a blend of the latest CI-satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Cristina is moving westward or 280/11 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or rationale. The latest NHC model guidance remains tightly packed about the previous forecast track, with Cristina expected to continue in a general westerly direction until dissipation occurs in 72-96 h over the extreme eastern portion of the Central Pacific basin. Cristina should continue to spin down as the cyclone moves over near 22 deg C SSTs, becoming a remnant low in about 24 hours. It is possible that Cristina could degenerate into an open wave sooner than currently forecast due to the abundance of dry, stable air that the cyclone will be ingesting. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 20.7N 124.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 20.9N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 21.3N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/0000Z 21.9N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1200Z 22.4N 133.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/0000Z 22.8N 136.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/1200Z 23.3N 139.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 24

2020-07-12 16:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 121432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 124.4W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 124.4W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 123.8W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.9N 126.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.3N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.9N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.4N 133.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.8N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.3N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 124.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 23

2020-07-12 10:34:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120834 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 200 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020 Conventional satellite and scatterometer data indicate that Cristina has weakened during the past several hours. Deep convection has become fragmented near the center of the cyclone, with only a small amount in the eastern semicircle. A blend of the satellite estimates from TAFB/SAB gives an initial wind speed of 40 kt for this advisory, and this value is also quite close to a recent scatterometer pass as well. Cristina should gradually lose strength during the next few days due to a combination of very cool waters and increasing shear, along with nearby dry air. These factors will likely cause the storm to transition into a non-convective remnant low on Monday. The intensity forecast is lowered from the previous one, mostly due to the decreased initial intensity, and the remnant low timing is earlier as well. The storm is moving a little north of due west, or 275/11. A well-defined subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific should keep this general motion going for the next several days. The model guidance has changed little since the last cycle, so no significant changes were made to the track forecast. None of the global models hold onto the low-level circulation for long beyond 72 hours, so dissipation is now shown by day 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 20.7N 123.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 20.9N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 21.2N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 21.6N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z 22.1N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1800Z 22.6N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 23

2020-07-12 10:30:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 120830 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 123.3W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 123.3W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 122.7W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.9N 125.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.2N 127.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.6N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.1N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.6N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 123.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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