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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-07-11 05:15:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 110315 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.8W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 279 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.8W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 116.1W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.5N 118.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 121.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.3N 124.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.7N 126.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.0N 128.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.6N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 23.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 24.0N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 116.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 7
2020-07-11 04:34:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 110234 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Satellite and radar data indicate that Fay is no longer generating organized deep convection as the center moves into northern New Jersey. A combination of radar, aircraft, buoy, and ship data show that 30-35 kt winds are occurring over the water south of central and western long Island, and based on this the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt. The central pressure of 1001 mb is based on surface observations. Barring the return of convection, Fay should continue to weaken and become post-tropical on Saturday. After that, the system is expected to dissipate on Sunday as it merges with a frontal system over southeastern Canada. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. The initial motion is now northward or 005 degrees at 15 kt. The track forecast philosophy is unchanged, as Fay will be steered generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. The storm is moving a little to the left of the previous forecast, so the new forecast is nudged to the left due mainly to the initial position and motion. The new forecast lies close to the consensus models. Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the center of Fay, as the heaviest rain and strongest winds are now occurring well away from the center. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from eastern Pennsylvania, northeast New Jersey and across southeast New York, into portions of New England may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage. Isolated minor flooding is possible; however, widespread river flooding is not expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected for several more hours over portions of coastal New York and Connecticut, including most of Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 41.0N 74.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 11/1200Z 43.6N 73.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 12/0000Z 47.5N 71.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 12/1200Z 51.1N 68.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-07-11 04:31:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 110231 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED SOUTH AND WEST OF EAST ROCKAWAY...NEW YORK. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST ROCKAWAY NEW YORK TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 74.2W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 74.2W AT 11/0300Z...INLAND AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 74.3W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 43.6N 73.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 47.5N 71.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 51.1N 68.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.0N 74.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-07-10 22:46:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 102046 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Fay's structure is looking less tropical this afternoon. While the central circulation is decidedly warm core, it is lacking deep convection and consists entirely of low to mid-level clouds. The deepest convection is found in cloud bands located well east and southeast of the center. The initial intensity is set to 45 kt, with the strongest winds found in a convective band northeast of the center as seen in velocity data from the KOKX WSR-88D. The last fix from the earlier aircraft mission provided a central pressure estimate of 998 mb. Gradual weakening should occur from here on as the cyclone begins to interact more with land, however stronger winds are expected to persist over water even after the center moves inland tonight. Fay is shown as a 35-kt tropical storm inland at 12 hours, but those winds are expected to be over water well southeast of the center by that time. On Saturday, Fay should weaken as a post-tropical cyclone and dissipate in 36 to 48 hours. The initial motion estimate is 010/12 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Fay will be steered generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. The new NHC track forecast is close to the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the center of Fay, as heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue to affect areas well away from the cyclone's center. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from northern Delaware and eastern Pennsylvania northeast across New Jersey, southeast New York, and portions of New England may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage. While isolated minor flooding is possible, widespread river flooding is not expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward across portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 39.5N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...ON THE COAST 12H 11/0600Z 41.7N 73.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1800Z 45.7N 72.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 12/0600Z 49.6N 69.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-07-10 22:45:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 150 WTNT21 KNHC 102045 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062020 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF GREAT EGG INLET NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING SOUTHERN DELAWARE BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GREAT EGG INLET NEW JERSEY TO WATCH HILL RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 74.3W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 160SE 30SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 160SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 74.3W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 74.4W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 41.7N 73.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 45.7N 72.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 49.6N 69.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.5N 74.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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