je.st
news
Tag: forecast
Tropical Depression Seven-E Forecast Information (.shp)
2020-07-20 22:35:25| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Mon, 20 Jul 2020 20:35:25 GMT
Tags: information
tropical
depression
forecast
Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-07-20 22:33:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 080 WTPZ43 KNHC 202033 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020 Satellite imagery indciates that Tropical Depression Eight-E is getting better organized, with the formation of a small central dense overcast and banding features outside of the central convection. Satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt from TAFB and 30 kt from SAB, and recent scatterometer data indciate winds near 30 kt in the northwester quadrant. Based on these data, the initial intensity remains a possibly conservative 30 kt. The initial motion is 235/6, with the depression still being steered by a portion of the subtropical ridge building between it and Tropical Depression Seven-E. This motion should persist with some increase in forward speed for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward the west as the steering flow becomes more easterly. This should be followed by a turn toward the west-northwest between 48-60 h. The track guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is again in the middle of the guidance and close to the various consensus models. The cyclone is over warm sea surface temperatures and in a light shear environment, and these conditions should persist for the next several days. The intensity guidance calls for steady strengthening through about 72 h, and the NHC forecast follows this trend near the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope. The Rapid Intensification Indices of the SHIPS model suggest about a 20-25 percent chance of RI during the first 72 h of the forecast, and given the seemingly-favorable environment it would not be a surprise if the cyclone strengthened more than currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 13.5N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 12.8N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 12.1N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 11.9N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 11.9N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 12.4N 132.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 13.4N 134.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 15.0N 140.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 16.5N 145.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Seven-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-20 22:33:31| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 20 2020
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Eight-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-07-20 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 20 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 202032 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 2100 UTC MON JUL 20 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 120.4W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 120.4W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 119.8W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.8N 121.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.1N 123.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 11.9N 126.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 11.9N 129.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 12.4N 132.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.4N 134.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 15.0N 140.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 16.5N 145.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 120.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Seven-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-07-20 22:31:30| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 20 2020
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Sites : [602] [603] [604] [605] [606] [607] [608] [609] [610] [611] [612] [613] [614] [615] [616] [617] [618] [619] [620] [621] next »