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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 22

2020-07-12 04:32:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 120232 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0300 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 122.2W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 122.2W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 121.6W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.8N 124.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.0N 131.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.4N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.9N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 23.5N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 122.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 21

2020-07-11 22:40:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 112040 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 Cristina's deep convection continues to decrease and is now primarily limited to a narrow ring of thunderstorms that wraps about 75 percent around the low-level circulation center. Although the convective pattern resembles an embedded eye feature, the convection is thin and becoming increasingly shallow due to cooler waters beneath the cyclone. The initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt, which is above most of the satellite intensity estimates, based on the eye-like feature and a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 51 kt at 1335Z. The initial motion remains westward or 280/12 kt. The global and regional models are tightly packed and in excellent agreement on Cristina maintaining this general direction and speed for the next three days. Afterwards, the shallow cyclone is expected to turn due west or possibly even south of west as the remnant low comes under the influence the easterly trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southward initial position. Cristina's forecast track will continue to take the cyclone over progressively cooler waters for the 120-h forecast period, thus, gradual weakening is expected. Cristina should become a depression in about two days, followed by degeneration into a remnant low shortly thereafter. The remnant low is expected to open up into a trough shortly after 120 h over the Central Pacific basin, but that could occur sooner than currently forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous forecast, and closely follows the IVCN consensus intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 20.6N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 20.8N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 21.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 22.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 22.5N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z 22.9N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/1800Z 23.8N 145.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 21

2020-07-11 22:39:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 112039 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 121.0W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 121.0W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.4W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.8N 122.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 125.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.5N 127.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.5N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.9N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 23.8N 145.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 121.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 20

2020-07-11 16:35:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 924 WTPZ45 KNHC 111435 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 500 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020 Over the past several hours, the coverage of deep convection around the center of Cristina has gradually decreased as the cyclone continues to move over relatively cool 24 C waters. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS SATCON all support lowering the initial intensity to 55 kt. Cristina is forecast to move over even cooler waters and into a progressively drier and more stable air mass over the next couple of days. These conditions should cause the cyclone to steadily weaken. By 60 h, Cristina is forecast to have lost its deep convection near its center and become a remnant low. There is a chance that the convection could dissipate sooner than indicated, and Cristina could become a post-tropical cyclone while wind speeds are still greater than 30 kt. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one. Cristina is moving just north of due west at 12 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next several days, as the cyclone is steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. early on, then by the low level easterlies once the system becomes a remnant low. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of tightly clustered track guidance, and is little changed from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 20.6N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 21.2N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 21.6N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 22.1N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 22.6N 131.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1200Z 23.1N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z 23.8N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/1200Z 24.0N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 20

2020-07-11 16:32:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 111432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.7W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.7W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.1W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.2N 123.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.6N 126.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.1N 128.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.6N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.1N 133.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 23.8N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 24.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 119.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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