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Remnants of Six-E Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-07-14 23:51:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020 228 WTPZ21 KNHC 142151 CCA TCMEP1 REMNANTS OF SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020 CORRECTED VALID TIME IN FORECAST SECTION THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 118.0W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 118.0W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 117.3W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 118.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Remnants of Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-07-14 22:37:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142037 TCDEP1 Remnants Of Six-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020 A very recent ASCAT-B overpass indicated that the circulation of the tropical depression is no longer closed with light and variable winds evident on its south side. Therefore, the system no longer meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory issued by NHC. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on the ASCAT data, which showed an area of 20-25 kt winds on the system's north side. The remnants of the depression are currently producing a very limited amount of shower activity, but the associated convection could pulse up and down for another day until the trough moves over cooler waters. The trough is moving westward at about 15 kt and it should continue in that direction for another couple of days until it completely dissipates. For additional information on this system please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 18.2N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Remnants of Six-E Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-07-14 22:36:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 142036 TCMEP1 REMNANTS OF SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 118.0W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 118.0W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 117.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 118.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Discussion Number 4
2020-07-14 16:38:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020 802 WTPZ41 KNHC 141438 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020 The depression has been moving over a ridge of warmer sea surface temperatures (about 28C) over the past few hours, and a nontrivial amount of deep convection redeveloped soon after the issuance of the previous advisory, albeit at least 60 n mi to the southwest of the low-level center. However, with no appreciable change in the cyclone's structure, the initial intensity remains 25 kt in accordance with the overnight scatterometer data. The depression is forecast to reach waters colder than 26C in 12-24 hours, which should extinguish the remaining deep convection. The updated NHC forecast now shows the depression degenerating into a remnant low by 24 hours, with dissipation by 48 hours. Another scenario is that the depression could dissipate at any time if it opens up into a trough, which is shown by most of the global model guidance. The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 285/14 kt, which is more poleward than has been shown by the dynamical track models. Because of this, the simpler shallow trajectory models are given a higher contribution on this cycle, with the new NHC track forecast ending up a bit north of the previous forecast. The depression and its remnants are expected to gradually accelerate toward the west-northwest or west over the next day or two until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 18.1N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 18.3N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.4N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0000Z 18.2N 126.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Six-E Forecast Advisory Number 4
2020-07-14 16:36:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 141436 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062020 1500 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 116.6W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 116.6W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.3N 119.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.4N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.2N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 116.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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