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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-07-10 22:44:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 605 WTPZ45 KNHC 102044 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020 Satellite images continue to show a degradation of Cristina's appearance, with cloud tops warming and deep convection mainly limited to the southeastern semicircle. The low level center is clearly visible, but its motion is erratic, taking a looping trajectory through the day. The weakening is likely due to the cyclone's passage over cooler waters. Objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 43 kt to 65 kt. For this forecast package, the initial intensity will be kept at 60 kt based on a blend of the available estimates. The initial motion of Cristina is 285/15 kt. The synoptic scale guidance indicates that a mid-level ridge over the southwestern U.S. will strengthen over the next couple of days. As the ridge strengthens, Cristina is expected to gradually turn west. The objective aids remain relatively tightly packed. The forecast has been adjusted slightly north of the previous forecast and is close to the HCCA guidance. It appears Cristina's opportunity to become a hurricane has passed as the cyclone moves over cooler waters. The objective aids indicate weakening over the next several days due to the cooler sea surface temperatures and a drier, more stable air mass along the forecast track. Cristina is forecast to become a remnant low by 72 hours, though some of the models indicate this process may take a little longer. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 19.8N 115.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 20.1N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 20.5N 120.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 20.9N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 21.2N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 21.6N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 21.9N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kodama
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 17
2020-07-10 22:42:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 102041 RRA TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 115.5W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 115.5W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.1N 117.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 55SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.5N 120.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.9N 122.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.2N 125.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.6N 127.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.9N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KODAMA
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Tropical Storm Fay Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-07-10 16:51:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 305 WTNT41 KNHC 101451 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062020 1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Fay's circulation currently consists of a small low-level center rotating around inside of a larger circulation. Deep convection is displaced well to the north and southeast of the center as water vapor imagery shows dry air being wrapped into the circulation. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fay this morning found that the pressure has fallen to around 999 mb, and based on a blend of the SFMR peak winds of 45 kt and a 925-mb peak flight level wind of 65 kt, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt for this advisory. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one. Little change in strength is expected before Fay's center moves inland later today or this evening, with weakening expected after that time. While a 48-h forecast point is provided, most of the models show the vortex dissipating by that time. The initial motion estimate is 005/10. Fay will be steered generally northward and north-northeastward until dissipation between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and an approaching shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. Little change was made to the NHC track forecast, which lies close to the previous one and is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Users should not place too much emphasis on the exact track of the center of Fay, as heavy rainfall and strong winds will continue to affect areas well away from the cyclone's center. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall from Delaware northward into New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, southeast New York, and southern New England may result in flash flooding and urban flooding in areas with poor drainage. Widespread river flooding is not expected at this time. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread northward across portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeast coast today and tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coasts of Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, including Long Island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 38.4N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 39.9N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1200Z 43.2N 73.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/0000Z 47.1N 71.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1200Z 50.7N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-07-10 16:36:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 101436 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 900 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020 Cristina's appearance on satellite has not improved over the past several hours. In fact, cloud tops are beginning to warm and some of the convection has begun to erode over the northern portion of the circulation. A blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support keeping the initial intensity at 60 kt. However, this may be a little generous due to the lower values suggested by the objective satellite intensity estimates as well as an earlier ASCAT pass showing maximum winds of only 45 kt. It is becoming less likely that Cristina will become a hurricane as the storm is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm later today and move into a drier and more stable air mass. Once the cyclone enters this unfavorable environment a weakening trend should begin. By 72 h, Cristina is expected to become a remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast was adjusted slightly downward in the near term, and no longer shows Cristina reaching hurricane strength. The remainder of the intensity forecast is similar to the previous official forecast. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should continue to steer Cristina to the west-northwest through tonight. As Cristina weakens and becomes a shallow system, a gradual turn toward the west is expected in the low-level flow. The track models remain tightly clustered, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 19.1N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.8N 116.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 20.3N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 20.6N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 20.9N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z 22.8N 139.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-07-10 16:35:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 101435 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 1500 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 114.2W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 114.2W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 113.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.8N 116.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.3N 118.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.6N 121.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.9N 124.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 22.8N 139.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 114.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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