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Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Discussion Number 6

2020-07-21 22:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 212037 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020 Douglas appears to have been trying to scour out a little bit of dry air on its western side during the day, although recent visible images suggest that deep convection is attempting to wrap entirely around the center. Because the convective pattern didn't change much from earlier, Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain T3.5/55 kt, so the initial intensity is held steady on this advisory. Strong ridging to the north of Douglas continues to impart a west-southwestward motion of the cyclone, or 255/13 kt. As mentioned this morning, the ridge is likely to take on a more east-west orientation as a mid-/upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands retrogrades westward, and this pattern evolution will allow Douglas to turn westward by tonight and then west-northwestward by late Wednesday. That general motion is forecast to continue for the remainder of the 5-day forecast period. The track guidance still showcases a faster ECMWF and slower GFS and HWRF solutions, and the overall envelope and model consensus aids have again nudged northward. The updated track forecast is therefore a little north of the previous one, mainly after 48 hours through day 5. Once deep convection can isolate Douglas's center from the ambient environment, low shear and warm sea surface temperatures of 28-29 degrees Celsius should allow intensification to resume. Despite this morning's hiatus in strengthening, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) guidance continues to key in on a significant chance of RI during the next day or two. Therefore, the intensity forecast from this morning has been left unchanged, and it still generally lies between the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble, closer to the higher end of the guidance envelope. Douglas should reach its peak intensity in about 48 hours, after which time oceanic heat content values drop to zero, which should cause some gradual weakening. Based on a partial ASCAT-A pass, Douglas's tropical-storm-force wind radii were increased on the northern side. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 12.1N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 11.9N 127.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 12.1N 129.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 13.0N 131.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 14.4N 134.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 15.7N 137.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 16.9N 140.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 18.5N 146.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 19.0N 151.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion storm douglas

Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 1

2020-07-21 22:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 212036 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the low pressure area located over the central tropical Atlantic has a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be designated a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Seven. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in best agreement with the subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. The initial motion is 300/7. The depression is south of a strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic, and over the next several days it should turn generally westward and accelerate as it encounters the easterly flow associated with the ridge. The ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET models are in reasonably good agreement on their track forecasts, and the NHC official forecast is close to them and the various consensus models. The intensity forecast is lower confidence. The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models forecast the cyclone to be dissipated or be a weak low by the 120 h point, likely due to to some vertical shear and dry air entrainment. On the other hand, the SHIPS-based guidance and the HWRF forecast the system to be a hurricane at 120 h, shrugging off the shear and dry air. The NHC intensity forecast will be a compromise between these extremes, showing a peak intensity of 55 kt in 60-72 h followed by some weakening based on the global models. The cyclone is small in size, and as a result it could change intensity - both up and down - faster than what is currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 9.8N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 10.1N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 10.3N 43.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 10.3N 46.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 10.4N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 10.6N 51.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 11.0N 54.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 12.0N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 13.5N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Tropical Storm Douglas Forecast Advisory Number 6

2020-07-21 22:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 212036 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 125.4W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 125.4W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 124.8W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 11.9N 127.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.1N 129.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.0N 131.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 134.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.7N 137.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.9N 140.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N 146.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.0N 151.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 125.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Tags: number storm douglas advisory

Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Advisory Number 1

2020-07-21 22:35:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 212035 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 40.4W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 40.4W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 40.0W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 10.1N 41.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 10.3N 43.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.3N 46.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 10.4N 49.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 10.6N 51.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 11.0N 54.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 12.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 13.5N 68.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 40.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number advisory tropical depression

Post-Tropical Cyclone Seven-E Forecast Information (.shp)

2020-07-21 16:41:15| Tropical Depression LIDIA

GIS Data last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 14:41:15 GMT

Tags: information forecast shp cyclone

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